Tehran’s military capabilities do not match its ambitions for recognition and status. It is cautious, defensive, and prudent in resorting to force, due as much to experience as to realism about its own limits.
Shahram Chubin is no longer with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Shahram Chubin was a nonresident senior fellow in the Carnegie Nuclear Policy Program. Based in Geneva, Chubin’s research focuses on nonproliferation, terrorism, and Middle East security issues.
Chubin was director of studies at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, Switzerland, from 1996 to 2009. A specialist in the security problems of the Middle East, he has been a consultant to the U.S. Department of Defense, the RAND Corporation, and the United Nations. He has been director of regional security studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a resident fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars, and a fellow at the Hudson Institute.
Chubin has taught at various universities including the Graduate School of International Studies in Geneva and the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He has lectured at Oxford, Harvard, and Columbia universities as well as at military staff colleges. He has published widely in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, International Security, Washington Quarterly, Survival, Daedalus, the Middle East Journal, the World Today, and the Adelphi Paper series.
A Swiss national, Chubin was born in Iran and educated in Britain and the United States.
Tehran’s military capabilities do not match its ambitions for recognition and status. It is cautious, defensive, and prudent in resorting to force, due as much to experience as to realism about its own limits.
Even if the interim deal with Iran is successfully extended into a comprehensive agreement during the next twelve months, Tehran’s conduct in the Middle East will remain largely unregulated.
With the international spotlight focused on Iran and its nuclear agenda, Tehran has been loath to reliably assure the international community of its ultimate intentions.
Since the start of the Arab Awakening, Tehran has confronted a less tractable regional environment, with allies weakened and adversaries emboldened.
Nearly ten years after the question of Iran’s nuclear ambitions became an international issue, little progress has been made in settling it.
As global tensions over Iran’s nuclear program escalate, Tehran and the West have reached a standoff. To revive negotiations, a clear understanding of the key factors influencing Iran’s stance is paramount.
The aim of U.S. diplomacy should be to reconcile Iran's nuclear ambitions with international concerns about proliferation and to address the broader issues raised by Iran's regional behavior.
As Egypt begins its efforts to create a more democratic and inclusive government, Iran seems to be moving in the opposite direct.
In both Egypt and Iran, youth are at the forefront of the struggle for change as both governments must struggle to generate jobs for their growing populations and diminish the growing gap between the rich and the poor.
The latest round of negotiations between Iran and its critics faces the same significant obstacles and political constraints as previous diplomatic efforts.