Türkiye is an important transatlantic actor in Sino-Western competition. It can add value to Western efforts aimed at synchronizing policies toward a rising China. And yet, at present, Ankara’s policies on China are not harmonized with those of its partners in the West.

A conversation about Erdoğan’s Balkan tour and Turkey’s broader agenda in the region.

As the transatlantic allies adapt to Europe’s new geopolitical realities, maintaining unity against Russia will be critical. Türkiye will have a pivotal role to play in this long-term effort.

Nonetheless, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has compelled governments in the US and Europe to decide in some cases whether to permit significant lucrative transactions, contracted for by Western nuclear firms with Russian industry before the war began, to be completed. 

With its foreign policy maneuvering space increasingly constrained, Turkey’s hedging between its NATO allies and Russia will be harder to maintain.

In Syria’s border regions, changes in demographics, economics, and security mean that an inter-Syrian peace process will require consensus among main regional powers that Syria must remain united, that no one side can be victorious, and that perennial instability threatens the region.