Tehran’s attempts to establish “new equations” of deterrence through direct strikes on Israel have largely backfired.

85-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is caught in a high-stakes military, financial and psychological battle against America and Israel at a time when his own mental faculty and energy are undoubtedly fading. Hesitating to respond to adversaries’ provocations risks further diminishing his authority, yet a strong response could jeopardize his survival.

Curtailing cooperation with the global nuclear order may be provocative, but it is not necessarily productive.

Israel’s military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon has broken a status quo that could carry potentially momentous consequences for a country and a region already marked by a year of conflict. Critical questions loom. Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Kim Ghattas and Ambassador David Satterfield for the next Carnegie Connects. 

Iran and Saudi Arabia are both autocratic energy titans, collectively controlling nearly a third of the world’s oil reserves and a fifth of its natural gas. Yet they are led by starkly different men with profoundly different plans.

For too long, the EU focused on Iran’s nuclear program while mostly ignoring its malign regional activities and missile program. As the consequences of both hit closer to home, the union must pursue a new strategy focused on containing Iran’s regime, supporting Iranian civil society, and engaging with Gulf states.