Tom de Waal is a senior fellow with Carnegie Europe, specializing in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus region.
He is the author of numerous publications, most recently The End of the Near Abroad (Carnegie Europe/IWM, 2024). The second edition of his book The Caucasus: An Introduction (Oxford University Press) was published in 2018. He is also the author of Great Catastrophe: Armenians and Turks in the Shadow of Genocide (Oxford University Press, 2015) and of the authoritative book on the Nagorny Karabakh conflict, Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan Through Peace and War (NYU Press, second edition 2013).
From 2010 to 2015, de Waal worked for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC. Before that he worked extensively as a journalist in both print and for BBC radio. From 1993 to 1997, he worked in Moscow for the Moscow Times, the Times of London, and the Economist, specializing in Russian politics and the situation in Chechnya. He co-authored (with Carlotta Gall) the book Chechnya: Calamity in the Caucasus (NYU Press, 1997), for which the authors were awarded the James Cameron Prize for Distinguished Reporting.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has reshaped the geopolitical and economic landscape in the South Caucasus. Although the conflict has created new vulnerabilities for Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, these countries have also experienced economic benefits, particularly through increased trade with Russia.
Georgian Dream has claimed victory in a contested election, sparking protests and a constitutional crisis. The EU is now under pressure to support Georgians’ democratic and European aspirations while working to prevent further escalation and potential violence.
Kyiv needs a hearts-and-minds policy to win over Russophone Ukrainians in these places who feel no loyalty to Putin but have been acculturated in Russian and will still feel insecure about what the government has in mind for their language and cultural choices.
Thomas de Waal and Natalie Sabanadze discuss the stakes in Georgia’s forthcoming election and explore how the results could affect the country’s course toward EU membership.
Azerbaijan is in a dominant position as negotiations drag on with Armenia on normalizing relations. To advance a meaningful and sustainable settlement, the West must prioritize engagement with the region.
A successful peace agreement with Azerbaijan would mean Armenia would have more options and would be able to lessen its historical dependence on Russia and pursue a stronger partnership with the West. A continuation of the status quo gives Russia more opportunities to reapply its traditional levers of control.
Carnegie Politika podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Carnegie Europe's director Rosa Balfour and senior fellow Tom de Waal to discuss Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, and Serbia, which find themselves caught between Russia and the EU.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has left a group of “in-between” European countries more vulnerable and insecure than ever before. This arc of instability spans from the South Caucasus through Moldova to the Western Balkans.
Russia’s war on Ukraine is driving Georgia’s government toward closer alignment with Moscow and other illiberal states
Russia and like-minded South Caucasus leaders are reshaping alliances in the region, where competition for influence is raging.
