Russia’s war in Ukraine has reshaped the geopolitical and economic landscape in the South Caucasus. Although the conflict has created new vulnerabilities for Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, these countries have also experienced economic benefits, particularly through increased trade with Russia.
Security concerns are reshaping the economic and foreign policy trajectories of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. As these nations navigate complex choices about their future paths, the EU should recognize the geostrategic importance of the South Caucasus and strengthen its ties with the region.
Russia’s war on Ukraine is driving Georgia’s government toward closer alignment with Moscow and other illiberal states
Russia and like-minded South Caucasus leaders are reshaping alliances in the region, where competition for influence is raging.
Putin’s war on Ukraine marks the end of the near abroad—the idea that Russia enjoys a special status in much of the post-Soviet space. But while Russia’s neighbors are seeking greater independence, they are not necessarily turning West.
The EU’s failure to leverage strict conditionality emboldened Georgia’s government to pursue regressive policies. Ongoing protests should prompt Brussels to empower Georgian grassroots as catalysts for democratic change.
Turkey’s dependence on energy imports has an impact on the country’s economic and geopolitical orientation. Turkish leaders should devise energy policies that respond to domestic priorities, regional ambitions, and the challenges posed by climate change.
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