Nikolay Kozhanov is no longer with the Carnegie Moscow Center
Nikolay Kozhanov is a former nonresident scholar in the Foreign and Security Policy Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center and a contributing expert to the Moscow-based Institute of the Middle East. His research focuses on international relations and political economy of the Middle East, particularly Iran and the Gulf.
Prior to joining the Carnegie Moscow Center, Kozhanov worked as a visiting lecturer on political economy of the Middle East at the European University in St. Petersburg and a senior lecturer in international economics at the St. Petersburg State University. From July 2006 to November 2009, Kozhanov served as an attaché of the political section of the Russian Embassy in Tehran, where his responsibilities included the analysis of socio-economic and political developments in Iran.
In 2011, Kozhanov published his first monograph that assessed the effectiveness of international sanctions adopted against Iran. In 2012, he was a visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, which sponsored the publication of his second monograph, Russia’s Relations with Iran: Dialogue Without Commitments. In 2015, Kozhanov joined the Russia and Eurasia program of Chatham House as a Robert Bosch visiting fellow to research the evolution of Russian foreign policy in the Middle East in the wake of the crisis in Ukraine.
After the recent breakdown of the ceasefire in Syria and the escalation of the Russian bombardment of Aleppo, Carnegie.ru asked three experts, one in Russia, one in the United States and one in the Middle East to comment on the question: can the United States and Russia Still Achieve Something Together in Syria?
Perhaps Iran’s leaders would have suppressed popular indignation and Russian bombers would still be taking off from the Shahid Nojeh airfield now had it not been for Russian media playing up the prospect of establishing a military base in Iran, no matter how limited its resources and capabilities. The idea of handing over any part of its territory to foreigers is unacceptable to the Iranians
The “cessations of hostilities” agreement for Syria, brokered in part by Russia, is breaking down—and violence is escalating across large areas of the country, especially in Aleppo.
By intensifying its current activities in the Middle East, the Kremlin is pursuing three goals: economic, political, and security.
Vladimir Putin’s announcement of Russia’s withdrawal from Syria is another cynical move by the Kremlin to retain control over the situation.
The 2016 elections to the Iranian parliament and Assembly of Expert definitely brought, at least, nominal changes in the political landscape of the country. Yet, the potential impact of these changes on the future development of the country will probably be limited.
The Saudi-Iranian conflict will compel Moscow to make a hard choice: stand with its Iranian partner or step aside and remain ostensibly neutral.
At the moment, Russia and Iran remain partners in Syria, but their cooperation will be limited.
Aware of the perils of a long military operation in Syria, Russia is taking another look at energizing the diplomatic track. But a number of issues will be very difficult to resolve, in particular the fate of President Assad.
The Assad regime is Russia’s main stake which allows the Russians to influence the situation in Syria and demonstrate their importance in the international arena by positioning Moscow as one of those players without whom the crisis cannot be solved.