The unusual move is likely a signal to the West that Minsk is uncomfortable about the prospect of permanent dependence on Moscow.

For decades, the West has been unable to build an effective strategy vis-à-vis Belarus due to the country’s limited geopolitical importance, its growing dependence on Moscow, and the absence of leverage over Minsk’s strategic decision-making.

Carnegie Politika podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Artyom Shraibman, a non-resident fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, to discuss his new paper for Carnegie Endowment, “Getting Off the Back Foot: Guiding Principles for a Proactive Western Strategy on Belarus.”

Carnegie Politika podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Artyom Shraibman, a non-resident fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, to discuss his new paper for Carnegie Endowment, "Getting Off the Back Foot: Guiding Principles for a Proactive Western Strategy on Belarus."

Western leaders’ apathy and lack of interest in Belarus risk creating a self-fulfilling prophecy that leaves Belarus trapped in Moscow’s smothering embrace more or less indefinitely. This paper identifies options for a more effective Western strategy that takes into account existing opportunities and limitations.

As far as the Belarusian regime is concerned, the threat comes not from its own society, but from external enemies who will use every opportunity to repeat the mass unrest of 2020. That means that every possible weak spot must be shored up.

Just the appearance of a body like the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly after the elections will legitimize conversations about succession within the ruling elite.

A talk on how the situation in Belarus has changed over the past three years, the effects of the war in Ukraine on Belarusian state and society, the regime’s new repressive tools, its growing dependence on Russia, the shared values of Belarusians, and the democratic future of Belarus.

How the Stalemate in Ukraine Has Quietly Revived Lukashenko’s Autocracy

Belarus’ democratic forces recognise the sad reality: the connection between them and the majority of Belarusians inside the country is broken.