Ahmadinejad's Uncertain Future: Assessing Iran's Presidential Elections

On June 12 Iranians will vote in the country’s tenth presidential election since 1979. Incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will be challenged in his bid for re-election by three well-known Iranian political figures. The powerful advantages of incumbency and the ostensible support of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei bode well for Ahmadinejad’s re-election, according to Karim Sadjadpour, an Associate at the Carnegie Endowment, and Robin Wright, public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

Iranian elections are unfree, unfair, but also unpredictable. Ahmadinejad’s mismanagement of the economy, confrontational foreign policy, and clampdown on civil liberties, however, have generated a sense of malaise in the country that may be enough to make him the first Iranian president to fail to win a second term.

Regardless of who wins the election, Sadjadpour and Wright stressed that its outcome has important consequences for U.S.-Iranian rapprochement. In a discussion moderated by Haleh Esfandiari, director of the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Sadjadpour and Wright gave an overview of the four candidates, the major issues in the elections, whether the elections are democratic, and their significance.

The Candidates:

• Former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi: The leading opposition candidate whose campaign slogan is “return to stability, return to rationality.” He appeals to the urban middle classes, professional elites, women and young voters. While he has promised to follow former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami’s commitment to reform, Wright cautioned that he is really a conservative moderate.  Sadjadpour added that he lacks Khatami’s charisma, and has yet to inspire wide-scale political mobilization.
   
• Mehdi Karroubi: Former speaker of the parliament and the only cleric running in the election. He is the “dark horse” candidate.  With the most expansive political platform – calling for the release of all political prisoners, free speech for all, easing of social restrictions and reform of the Guardian Council – he is the only true reformer.
   
• Mohsein Rezaii: Former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, he is best described as a pragmatic conservative. The least popular challenger, Rezaii is unlikely to win but may help reformists by stealing some conservative votes from Ahmadinejad, according to Sadjadpour.
   
• Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: The most hardline candidate, his base is the rural, lower-middle class and traditionalist or religious groups. Lower voter turnout will help him, since his political base votes in much higher numbers than other sectors of Iranian society. Ahmadinejad enjoys substantial advantages of incumbency, including the control of official state television, access to state funds, and ties to two bodies charged with administering the elections, the Interior Ministry and the Guardian Council.

Major Issues in the Election:

• Ahmadinejad’s record is the major issue in the election. The other candidates have defined their agendas in terms of his failures. Three issues are most important:
  
  
  • The economy – inflation is 28%, the cost of housing and food is sky-rocketing, and unemployment is officially 13% but could be as high as 20%. The oil stabilization fund has been severely depleted by Ahmadinejad. The three challengers all promise better economic management. Karroubi also proposes offering shares of the petroleum industry to the public, while Rezaii vows to squander less of the oil revenues.
     
  • The role of women – for the first time in an Iranian election, all candidates have a position on this issue. Mousavi and Karroubi both support equal rights for women and Karroubi promises to appoint women to his cabinet. Rezaii and Ahmadeinjad, in contrast, advocate maintaining the status quo in gender relations.
     
  • Iran-U.S. relations – each candidate favors negotiations, but they differ in how they should be structured and what their ultimate goal should be. Mousavi, for example, advocates negotiations as long as Iran is not required to “pay a heavy cost.”  Rezaii calls for negotiations, but with the qualification that Iran must do so from a position of strength.
     
• Wright added that two issues are not in play – the nuclear program, which all of the candidates support as Iran’s sovereign right – and commitment to the Islamic revolution and system of government, a stance that reflects the attitudes of Iranians.

Are the Elections Democratic?

• While Iranian elections are more democratic than elections in much of the Middle East, Sadjadpour emphasized that they are fundamentally unfree and unfair for two reasons:
  
  
  • The unelected Guardian Council determines who can run.
     
  • If the Supreme Leader decides to support one candidate, he has powerful tools at his disposal – the ability to mobilize the bassij and elements of the Revolutionary Guard, grant access to additional campaign funds, and provide preferential treatment from official state television – that can influence the outcome of the election. Wright cautioned, however, that in two instances Khamenei’s support was not enough to propel his preferred candidate to victory.
     
• Recent statements by Khamenei, Sadjadpour said, indicate that he has decided to support Ahmadinejad. Moreover, the other three candidates have all clashed with Khamanei in the past.
   
• The urban sophisticates in Tehran recognize the undemocratic aspects of Iranian elections, and in the past have refrained from voting. There are indications, however, that more will vote in this election. Rural Iranians largely see the elections as legitimate, or at least believe that voting is necessary to keep jobs directly or indirectly provided by the government.  

Significance of the Elections:

• The Supreme Leader is the most important official in Iran, but seeks input on policy decision from a small circle of elite advisors. The President’s influence is dwarfed by that of the Supreme Leader, but it is by no means negligible.
   
• Sadjadpour warned that if Ahmadinejad is re-elected, his history of diatribes toward Israel and Holocaust denial may make his continued presence as the public face of Iran an insurmountable obstacle to U.S.-Iran confidence building.