Source: Center for National Policy
For the first time in recent decades, the United States and China will experience a new cycle of top leadership, at roughly the same time, on the international stage. As we enter the final stages, American candidates wage loud campaigns, while the Chinese ruling party sticks to election secrecy by even keeping mum on the dates of the actual transition of power.
The international community is keeping close eyes on the political arenas of both countries. In the past few months in China, the Bo Xilai incident overwhelmed the media and Chinese version of Twitter (Weibo microblog). Chinese people’s demands and expectations are expressed frequently in the editorial pages and online through blogs or comments.
In the context of many uncertainties, what kind of changes will take place after the Chinese transition of power? What are the implications for U.S.-China relations? These questions have been frequently asked. Here, as a scholar, I give my own analysis. I’ve been here for almost one year and have no exact idea what is happening in Chinese people’s life, so it’s just a scholar’s analysis.Three aspects describe the implications of the Chinese election. The first one is Chinese political culture. The second one is Chinese civil society. The last one is Chinese foreign policy.
Changing Political Culture
Observers have noticed that the scale and the scope of upcoming changes are large in the three most important leadership bodies in China—the Party, the government, and the military. About two-thirds of the members will be replaced by newcomers. The principal figures in charge of the country’s political, economic, and ideological administrations, and provincial, foreign policy, public security, and military operations will largely consist of these newcomers after the upcoming Eighteenth Party Congress and the Twelfth National People’s Congress in the spring of 2013.
Generally the new generation leadership is more diverse in their educational, professional, and economic backgrounds. Within the Mao era, most government officials in leadership were soldiers, workers, and peasants. Under Deng Xiaoping in the early 1980s, the Chinese government began to recruit new officials from different social and occupational background into leadership. Most of them have better educational backgrounds, and some even have overseas diplomas. Some of them are chosen by competition, some by recommendation, and some advanced step by step from low grassroots positions. They are more cosmopolitan in worldviews and policy choices than their predecessors. Their backgrounds are more complex, representing different interest groups of China.
With high education and professional knowledge, these newcomers are more open-minded and confident in expressing their opinions. They have stronger rights awareness, as well as closer and wider connections with civil society. They are more amenable to new thoughts and new values.
I think these new factors will bring new changes to China political life. They may contribute in a profound way to the political institutionalization and democratic governance of China at all levels.
The Role of Civil Society in Chinese Political Life
Since opening up, dramatic changes have taken place in Chinese society. From the self-employed opening private businesses to athletes taking control of their careers through the “Fly Alone” initiative, individuals in China are gradually breaking away from collective and state mechanisms, getting more and more freedom and rights.
Before the reform and opening up, individuals had to subordinate to collective and national control. Nowadays, economic independence of individuals has been slowly transformed into social rights, which are even weakening the authority of government. For example, using the internet as a tool, Chinese youth who were born in 1980s and 1990s are making more and more points of their civil rights and getting involved into political life. Although the current system is not available and favorable yet, their demands and requests have attracted attention from mass media and even high-level policymakers.
More and more public involvement in political issues by commenters and critics on mass media will inevitably make Chinese politics more transparent and more pluralistic. More and more complaints and demands directly and quickly going out from various channels will not only exert influence on the law and policymaking but also oversee the law and policy implementation.
Foreign Policy
As the economy grows, China’s foreign policy maxim of “keeping a low profile” looks increasingly irrelevant, even absurd, to many Chinese people. Domestically, the government is faced with public complaints that China has been too timid. Calls from the public for a fundamental adjustment of foreign policy are growing. But from abroad, government will have to deal with pressures to remain modest and prudent.
In the recent two years, there is a real debate going on about the direction of Chinese foreign policy, not only among scholars, but also among officials. Obviously, China’s new status and the new international surroundings require that foreign policy catch up and become more sophisticated. But faced with pressing domestic issues, the new leadership may struggle to find time for foreign strategy. It could be that over time conditions create a rationale for a new foreign policy.
In the past few years China and the United States have become more competitive and mistrustful. Many observers have alleged that China has adopted a more assertive stance in foreign affairs and started acting less restrained after 2008. But what the U.S. editorialists call aggressive Chinese behavior is seen by Chinese as defensive and necessary.
If we watch closely, the competition and mistrust are actually embodied more sentimentally than substantially. Looking at the heating campaign in the United States, we can find China is a card to play for winning votes. Beijing and Washington are both influenced by free media that are not necessarily responsible media. Privately, both governments understand they need to show a tough face to the public.
Whatever attitude is reflected in public rhetoric in China or the United States, we should bear in mind the reality of more and more cooperation between the two countries in various fields. While many conflicts of interests and ideas exist, China recognizes the fact of sharing important interests and ideas with the United States. Leaders in the two countries have to work their way through public pressures to reach reasonable outcomes that stabilize and benefit bilateral relations and benefit mutual interests. Comparing mounting pressures on economic recovery at home, the current international environment seems benign, providing Beijing and Washington and other governments find ways to solve global issues and achieve cooperative security.
This publication was originally presented at a Center for National Policy panel discussion.