The real cause of today’s currency tensions lies not in the international monetary system, but in misguided domestic policies in the world’s major economies, which must undertake long overdue and largely internal reforms.
The real cause of today’s currency tensions lies not in the international monetary system, but in misguided domestic policies in the world’s major economies, which must undertake long overdue and largely internal reforms.
Though capital controls are generally disliked by economists, they remain popular among countries, as both emergency measures and part of longer-term strategies. If designed correctly, they do not pose a threat to country welfare or to the global economy.
Though global food prices have now passed the record highs reached in 2008, important differences between the two surges have prevented today’s crisis from having as severe of an impact on the world’s most vulnerable populations.
Reform of the international monetary system tops France's agenda as chair of the G20 but a review of the system during the crisis suggests no major overhaul is needed. Instead, major economies must change their domestic policies to ensure that the system functions smoothly.
An examination of past episodes of currency tension suggests that competitive devaluations are not likely today. But the forces behind past collapses remain highly relevant and policy makers cannot afford to be complacent.
Policy makers should heed the lessons of the Great Recession and enact the structural and regulatory reforms needed to protect the world against the next crisis.
Despite headlines proclaiming otherwise, the G20 summit made substantial progress on several issues, including financial and IMF governance reforms and the rejection of current account and currency targets.
Threats of a currency war hang in the air, but few countries have actually seen their exchange rate appreciate significantly. Major world economies should refocus on domestic policies before the rhetoric turns into reality.
U.S. unemployment is expected to decline slowly in the coming years. Though a gradual adjustment is not unique to the current recession, policy makers must promote growth and address structural mismatches to help the 14.9 million unemployed workers.
Growth in emerging economies has slowed from torrid post-crisis rates, but remains high and will likely mitigate—but not fully compensate for—a sharp slowdown in advanced countries.