Ukraine’s Western allies have worried that any Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil could be met with a devastating response. But Putin’s next moves remain uncertain, as does the effect this attack will have on the Russian public’s perceptions of the war.

The exchange was not accompanied by any rhetoric of a reset in Russia-U.S. relations—instead, it was like a divorcing couple dividing up assets.

The removal of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who had become a toxic figure for the elite, is supposed to increase the efficiency of Russia’s war machine.

Western leaders face the unenviable task of determining how to engage with a Russia that has grown increasingly self-confident, bold, and radical.

Putin’s state of the nation address should have been a mere pre-election formality, but it left an extremely chilling impression of an unraveling spiral of escalation.

The Russian leader wanted to use the encounter to reach out to U.S. conservatives, but the two men largely spoke past one another.

The war in Ukraine is starting to dictate its own rules to Putin. The president and his inner circle are being forced to submit to the new wartime reality that they themselves created.

Putin is waiting for the West to reconsider its policy and start looking for opportunities for an inclusive dialogue. Sending out the signal that Russia is ready for such a dialogue was one of the main aims of the phone-in and press conference.

Both the Prigozhin mutiny earlier this year and now the pogroms in the North Caucasus show that no matter how brutal and impenetrable the Russian regime may seem, it is weak and indecisive when confronted with any non-anti-Putin unrest.

A divide among Russia’s power players over how rapidly and extensively to Sovietize the country could form the basis for a conflict within the elite.