In Syria’s border regions, changes in demographics, economics, and security mean that an inter-Syrian peace process will require consensus among main regional powers that Syria must remain united, that no one side can be victorious, and that perennial instability threatens the region.

A forthcoming Carnegie paper will argue that to understand Syria’s future, we will have to focus on the country’s peripheries.

The Syrian regime has struggled to govern Syria’s south, while the Ukraine war has weakened Russia’s influence, making both more reliant on Tehran and its allies in the area. However, this may increase the prospects of conflict between Iran and Israel.

Ongoing negotiations between Syria and Türkiye may change the outlines of their border regions. But they won't alter the basic reality of cantonization.

The Assad regime seeks to reassert control over the frontier with Turkey, in that way becoming regionally relevant again.

Syrian officials know that unless they control areas east of the Euphrates, the regime will not be able to stabilize itself.

After a decade of civil war, Syria’s border with Turkey is divided. Yet long-term stability will require a peace agreement that treats the border as an indivisible whole.

The complex situation along Syria’s northern border with Turkey makes any settlement there difficult.

It’s about managing oil prices, bread prices, and strategic partnerships.

Idlib is heavily dependent on the delivery of aid, the disruption of which would almost surely create a humanitarian crisis.