Despite achieving notable successes over its seventy-five years of existence, NATO today faces a major challenge. A change in the United States’ commitment could spell the demise of the alliance.
John R. Deni is a research professor at the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, and an associate fellow at the NATO Defense College. He is the author of NATO and Article 5. The views expressed are his own.
Despite achieving notable successes over its seventy-five years of existence, NATO today faces a major challenge. A change in the United States’ commitment could spell the demise of the alliance.
NATO members face a dynamic regional security picture in the Baltic Sea. The alliance cannot answer all of the threats; further capabilities will be needed.
NATO must double down on deterrence and collective defense to stop any Russian attacks on its territory. That may mean a return to some level of conscription among more European allies.
NATO struggles to respond to events falling in between the seams of collective defense, crisis management, and cooperative security. Allies should use the 2022 Strategic Concept to map out how they will deal with Russian and Chinese hybrid warfare.
The West’s approach to Russian cyberwarfare is foundering. Many Western governments appear immobilized by the fear of escalatory counterattacks, but this is surrendering to Moscow.
The 2018 U.S. National Defense Strategy appears destined to fall short of fully satisfying American allies.
Moscow is engaged in a hybrid war against the West. The West’s response amounts to muddling through.
As the alliance reembraces its commitment to territorial, collective defense, there are large hurdles standing in its way, not least the lack of a strategy toward Russia.
NATO must signal to Moscow that any attempt by Russia for a landgrab in the Baltics would be met with a swift and overwhelming response.
The West must be more tolerant of Russia’s rhetorical hyperbole to guard against both the most dangerous and the most likely challenges emanating from Moscow.