President Kais Saied has won a second term in office, but his country is facing a host of problems that necessitate urgent reforms, above all preventing the possibility of a financial meltdown. 

Unless Tunisia undertakes much deeper structural change, Saied’s modus vivendi with big business will lead to increasing economic gridlock.

Tunisia’s vulnerability to financial crisis is clear from its economic performance in 2023. How can the country pull itself back from the edge?

Since 2011, Tunisia has been heading for a macroeconomic crisis—large deficits, shrinking fiscal space, and difficult negotiations with the IMF. In this election year, policymakers face high stakes: A hard economic adjustment risks sociopolitical crisis, but without correction, the country faces a future economic meltdown.