The Russian authorities understand that they would be wise not to distract ordinary people from their daily concerns at a time of war, and that they must be inventive and flexible, avoiding any sudden moves.

Many formerly badly paid Russian blue-collar workers have seen their salaries skyrocket since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, far outpacing inflation.

For some Russian regions, the country’s invasion of Ukraine means they face shelling and dwindling export revenues due to sanctions. For others, it means an unprecedented influx of cash as they profit from the flywheel of war and growing domestic consumption.

The Russian political system needs elections. Especially at the regional level, they serve to cultivate loyalty and as an initiation ritual for governors, their aides, and local power brokers.

In Russia, last year’s exodus of Western companies and Russian entrepreneurs is creating opportunities to entrench the regime, as a wartime redistribution of assets belonging to those who left the country promises to enrich what remains of the middle class and bind it to the state.