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Armenak Tokmajyan is a nonresident scholar at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. His research focuses on borders and conflict, Syrian refugees, and state-society relations in Syria.
Before joining Carnegie, Tokmajyan was a research fellow at International Crisis Group, focusing mainly on Syrian refugees in Lebanon, and patterns of displacement inside Syria. Before that, he was a research fellow at Budapest’s Central European University, focusing on conflict dynamics in Aleppo. He holds a master’s degree in peace, mediation and conflict research from University of Tampere, Finland.
Tokmajyan’s most recent work include How the Small Town of Sarmada Became Syria’s Gateway to the World (Carnegie Middle East Center, June 2021), Thwarting Jordan’s Bahhara Trade With Syria Risks Social Unrest in Ramtha (Carnegie Middle East Center, April 2021). His previous research include Easing Syrian Refugees’ Plight in Lebanon (International Crisis Group, 2020), Politics of Rural Notables a book chapter in an edited book entitled Local Intermediaries in post-2011 Syria: Transformation and Continuity (Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Beirut, June 2019), War Economy in Northern Syria (Shattuck Center for Conflict, Negotiation and Recovery, November 2016), Militarization of the Syrian revolution: Was this the wrong choice? (Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research 7(2), April 2015), Hezbollah’s Intervention in Syria: Religious Obligation or Political Choice? (Journal of Approaching Religion Vol. 4 (2), December 2014).
areas of expertise
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Arabic, English, ArmenianAll work from Armenak Tokmajyan
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In an interview, Abhinav Pandya discusses the multiple facets of India’s ties with the Middle East.
In Syria’s border regions, changes in demographics, economics, and security mean that an inter-Syrian peace process will require consensus among main regional powers that Syria must remain united, that no one side can be victorious, and that perennial instability threatens the region.
Since the outbreak of the Gaza war, the Assad regime has seen measured advances in its situation that fall well short of real success.
Join us for an in-depth discussion on Syria’s gradual normalization with countries in the Middle East and its reinstatement in the League of Arab States in May 2023, a significant step that signals a potential shift in Middle Eastern dynamics and regional security architecture. The normalization process began in 2018 when the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain reopened their embassies in Damascus, after Syria had been suspended from the Arab League in 2011 due to its brutal crackdown on protesters. Recently, Türkiye has also shown interest in normalizing relations with Syria, driven by concerns over Kurdish influence in northern Syria and the refugee crisis. The panel will evaluate the normalization process to date, examine the regime's willingness and capability to deliver on its promises, and assess whether the initial motivations of Arab states for normalization have been met. European and U.S. reactions have generally remained more cautious, emphasizing that normalization should be contingent on tangible political reforms by the Assad regime and adherence to human rights standards.
Against this backdrop of developments, the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center is hosting a virtual panel discussion on August 8, at 5:00 PM Beirut Time/ 10:00 AM EDT. The event will feature Sinan Ulgen, Sawsan Abou Zainedin, Abdullah Baabood, and Maria Luisa Fantappiè, and will be moderated by Armenak Tokmajyan.
The discussion will be held in English. Viewers may submit their questions to the panelists using the live chat feature on Facebook and YouTube.
For more information, please contact Najwa Yassine at najwa.yassine@carnegie-mec.org.
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- Sinan Ülgen,
- Armenak Tokmajyan,
- Abdullah Baabood,
- Maria Fantappie,
- Sawsan Abou Zainedin
In an interview, Lynn Zovighian describes how the Yezidi community continues to face profound uncertainty and insecurity.
As the influence of the Assad regime and Russia declines, Iran is emerging as the main actor, which could provoke a major Israeli intervention.
The Syrian regime has struggled to govern Syria’s south, while the Ukraine war has weakened Russia’s influence, making both more reliant on Tehran and its allies in the area. However, this may increase the prospects of conflict between Iran and Israel.
Syria, Azerbaijan, and some officials in Israel have conceptualized forced displacement as a mode of conflict management. That has consequences for the Western peacebuilding model.
Northwestern Syria is being consolidated into an effective canton protected and sustained by—and dependent on—Türkiye. Given the lack of prospects for any side to secure a decisive victory in the Syrian war or for a political settlement, the territory is the outcome of conflict management processes pursued by Türkiye, Russia, Iran, and the Syrian regime since 2016.
The Azerbaijani assault in Nagorno-Karabakh in many ways reflects a ruthless strategy that was previously employed in Syria.