The storm of government spending is sustaining the current state of affairs, but it cannot address the chronic problems that have long plagued the Russian economy. We are witnessing an irreversible turn toward economic stagnation.
A central bank digital currency could provide Russia with an alternative to the SWIFT international payment system from which it has been cut off, but the digital ruble has a long way to go before it enters mainstream circulation.
With a quarter of the global tanker fleet transporting Russian cargo in 2024, the so-called “shadow fleet” is neither as separate nor as obscure as might have been thought.
Azerbaijan is cautiously welcoming more Chinese investment, but its desire to keep outside companies away from strategic industries could cause friction.
Russian companies are not only selling more metals to China, but also integrating their value chains with Chinese firms.
The sanctions deployed against Russia have failed to break Vladimir Putin’s war machine, and now the West is looking for ways to make them more potent. In doing so, Western policymakers should remain clear-eyed about potential risks and side effects.
The new sanctions package will be extremely painful for the Russian economy, but it’s two years too late to be a gamechanger. In a global context, however, it increases the risk of the fragmentation of the financial system.
