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A Naval Blockade of Russian Oil Exports Risks a Military Showdown

The sanctions deployed against Russia have failed to break Vladimir Putin’s war machine, and now the West is looking for ways to make them more potent. In doing so, Western policymakers should remain clear-eyed about potential risks and side effects.

· July 5, 2024
How the Latest Sanctions Will Impact Russia—and the World

The new sanctions package will be extremely painful for the Russian economy, but it’s two years too late to be a gamechanger. In a global context, however, it increases the risk of the fragmentation of the financial system.

· June 20, 2024
Ukraine War Fuels Resurgence of Modern “Silk Road”

Central Asian and South Caucasus nations should use the interest in East–West trade through their territory to boost regional connectivity.

· June 10, 2024
Can Energy Ties Prevent an Azerbaijan–EU Rift?

While Baku appears inclined to pursue a “business only” arrangement with the European Union, it’s unclear whether that would be acceptable for Brussels.

· April 8, 2024
Russia’s Fuel Export Ban Reveals Systemic Problems, Wartime Stresses

The state has taken an ever-greater role in Russian energy markets in recent years, and the system for regulating domestic fuel prices has become more and more cumbersome. The war in Ukraine has shown both that the system is no longer fit for purpose, and that a government filled with technocrats is unable to see the forest for the trees.

· October 10, 2023
Deal or No Deal, the Calm on the Grain Exports Market Is Deceptive

Both Moscow and Kyiv are counting on being able to use the grain market to inflict damage on the enemy without sustaining any losses themselves. In this situation, the resurrection of the grain deal is a far less likely outcome than escalation.

· September 15, 2023