Ukraine’s Western allies have worried that any Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil could be met with a devastating response. But Putin’s next moves remain uncertain, as does the effect this attack will have on the Russian public’s perceptions of the war.

A spate of arrests in Tajikistan come as President Emomali Rahmon prepares to step down in favor of his son.

A steady flow of Russian weapons to Tehran could change the balance of power in the region, potentially triggering a response from the United States and Israel. 

Carnegie Politika podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by prominent historian Mary Elise Sarotte to discuss the past, present and future of NATO and European security amid the war in Ukraine.

The bulk of the current analysis of the attacks on refineries is celebratory, with a strong element of confirmation bias—and that is a classical folly that prevents learning. Russia’s refining sector, unlike its Black Sea Fleet, has proven to be resilient to the recent type of attacks, rather than the Achilles’ heel of the Russian economy that many were hoping it would be.

In response to “Why Ukraine Should Keep Striking Russian Oil Refineries” by Michael Liebreich, Lauri Myllyvirta, and Sam Winter-Levy.