Russia’s nuclear development of the Arctic continues apace, but with the country cut off from regional cooperation initiatives and foreign funding, many worry it may struggle to respond to a nuclear emergency.
Russia doesn’t stand to gain anything from de-ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, but friends and foes alike will reap the benefits of its decision.
The recent public discussion in Russia on using nuclear weapons against the West was really a discussion about how Moscow can extricate itself from the difficult situation in which it finds itself—and what price it is willing to pay for a victory.
By imagining an attack or even an invasion, Lukashenko is increasing the risks of war coming to Belarus.
Russia’s suspension of the New START Treaty is unlikely to impact the United States’ willingness to keep backing Ukraine, but it could certainly have an adverse long-term effect on Russia’s security.
Putin’s speech implied that Russia and the West are completely incompatible, so Russia can do nothing but fight to be the last one standing in the battle for survival.
Bilateral nuclear arms control is being succeeded in a polycentric nuclear world by deregulation. Rather than mourn arms control, we should focus on complimenting deterrence—which has been and will remain the bedrock of strategic stability—with reliable communication, contacts, transparency, and restraint among relevant parties.
