The fact that the Russian elites have such high hopes for Trump speaks volumes. Internally, they are striving for normalization, rationalization, and pragmatism: things that Putin cannot give them.

Opinion among Ukrainians about Trump is divided: some believe his presidency will be a disaster for their cause in the war with Russia; others see it as an opportunity.

The military value of Russia’s strike on Ukraine using the new Oreshnik missile was limited. The Kremlin’s real intent was to intimidate Europeans.

Recent updates to Russia’s nuclear doctrine lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, but Russia’s red lines are only really visible on the battlefield.

Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Alexander Baunov, editor-in-chief of Carnegie Politika and a senior fellow at Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, to discuss the upcoming Trump presidency and what effect it may have on Russian foreign policy and the war in Ukraine.

If even a peace proposal from Trump is rejected by Putin, then it means the demise of the Russian “victory plan” and any remote prospect of ending the war.