Since October 2023, the Red Sea has experienced an unprecedented surge in military tensions. Houthi forces in Yemen have launched a series of drone and missile attacks towards Israel and have targeted commercial and military vessels in the area, in response to Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza. In December, the United States announced the formation of Operation Prosperity Guardian, an international military coalition aiming to protect the Red Sea from Houthi attacks, and since January 12, the United States and Britain have carried out strikes against Houthi targets inside Yemen.
In the first article, Yemeni researcher Mohammad Ali Thamer explores the trajectory of these attacks and counterattacks over the past three months. He argues that these hostilities not only may have long-term consequences for global trade but also may quickly escalate into a wider regional war. Thamer also suggests that the formation of a U.S.-led military coalition in response to Houthi assaults may signal broader U.S. interests in securing a hold on the Red Sea, whose significance Washington has recognized for decades.
Beyond their regional and international implications, hostilities in the Red Sea must also be understood through the lens of Yemen’s internal politics. As Dr. Betul Dogan Akkas shows in the second article, Houthi control of the Hudaydah Red Sea port—a bloody chapter in Yemen’s civil war—laid the groundwork for Houthis’ current military capabilities. Their current attacks may be part of a strategy to cement their political authority in Yemen, especially amidst recent negotiations with Saudi Arabia to formally end the war. More broadly, she argues that the current situation reveals the misguided assumption that Yemen’s war could be permanently contained within the country.
Understanding U.S. Military Escalation in the Red Sea
Through its response to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, the United States has militarized the region in an effort to control one of the world’s most important waterways.
Mohammad Ali Thamer
As Houthi attacks continue, international experts and political analysts worry that the conflict will spiral into a regional war. Others believe that we may be facing an economic clash between Western nations and the economic powerhouse China, alongside its Belt and Road Initiative and its ally Russia. Central to these concerns is the examination of the impacts of Houthi attacks on global trade.
Targeting Israeli ships
From the outset, Houthi leaders declared that navigation in the Red Sea would remain secure for all international merchant vessels, except those bound for occupied Palestine. They described their targeting of Israeli ships as a legitimate act rooted in their humanitarian, Arab, and Islamic responsibility toward Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, who have endured relentless aggression for over a hundred days. Beyond targeting ships, they began to engage in direct military operations against Israel, launching missile and drone strikes towards the Israeli port of Eilat. On October 19, the Pentagon announced that the destroyer USS Carney had intercepted multiple Houthi missiles in the northern Red Sea, and reported that other projectiles were shot down over the territories of neighboring countries, including Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
On November 19, the Houthis proceeded to seize and detain the cargo ship Galaxy Leader, while launching attacks on other Israeli ships. Subsequently, on December 9, they announced a prohibition on ships from all nationalities traveling to and from Israeli ports, unless humanitarian aid was permitted to enter the Gaza Strip.
On January 12, in response to the Houthi threat, the United States and Britain initiated a series of airstrikes specifically aimed at Yemeni military installations. In retaliation, the Houthis declared all American and British interests as legitimate targets. This declaration triggered various speculations suggesting that the potential targeting of these interests may not be confined to the Red Sea region alone but may also extend to the Gulf Arab states.
The attacks have also raised questions about the internal policies of the Houthi movement. The Houthis have been subjected to political accusations, both at home and abroad, that targeting ships is a way divert attention from their responsibilities toward the Yemeni people. In other words, rather than working to achieve a lasting peace in Yemen, ensuring the payment of public employee salaries, and establishing a national government, they seem to prioritize the symbolic sympathy of the Arab and Islamic world.
Objectives of the International Coalition
In December, Washington announced the formation of an international coalition to safeguard the security of the Red Sea by countering Houthi attacks in the region. Notwithstanding this stated goal, some experts believe that there exist undisclosed objectives. The United States has recognized the strategic significance of the Red Sea since the October 1973 war. Consequently, the recent Houthi attacks could serve as a pretext for the United States to militarize of the Red Sea, secure control over the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and deploy of a substantial number of U.S. forces to the region. This strategic move could expand the U.S. sphere of influence while safeguarding Israel's security interests, framing an illusory adversary as it did in Afghanistan and Iraq. In this context, the Red Sea would quickly become a focal point for international competition—especially given the presence of eleven military bases in the Horn of Africa, which belong to several competing countries. Hostilities could quickly escalate into to an international war, and lead to the imposition of new conditions on international navigation in the Red Sea region, which Washington considers a strategic priority.
According to military strategy experts, Washington deliberately sought to magnify the impact of Houthi attacks on the Red Sea and pushed for the adoption of Security Council resolution 2722. They believe this is reflective of both American and British interests in establishing a presence in the Bab al-Mandab area, which could help diminish Chinese influence and obstruct its trade through this strategic strait, while simultaneously limiting Russia's regional capabilities.
The Red Sea... Where To?
The Red Sea is a pivotal strategic waterway that has become site for ongoing regional struggles. Its significance extends across economic, military, and security domains, making it one of the most crucial international maritime navigation routes in the world. This means that any conflict is a potential catalyst for a wider war, posing risks to international peace and security.
Economists contend that sustained attacks in the region may contribute to the deterioration of global trade. While the immediate impacts might not be apparent, the cumulative effect could be prolonged operational uncertainty for shipping companies. A global economic shock thus may be imminent, reminiscent of the disruptions caused by the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Mohammad Ali Thamer is a writer, researcher, and journalist from Yemen. He authored several books and published many articles in Yemeni, Arab, and international newspapers. Previously, he managed the magazines Al-Thaqafa and Al-Yamaniya.
Houthi Containment in Yemen: A False Hope
The idea that the Houthis only pose a threat to Yemen or the Middle East has been shattered.
Betul Dogan-Akkas
As is now obvious, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have lifted the war in Gaza into a new dimension, jeopardizing international commerce in one of the most important shipping lanes in the world. There is certainly an ideological element to the attacks on commercial vessels, as it allows the Houthis to reposition themselves as a key regional supporter of Palestinian resistance to Israeli occupation. But these attacks are also part of the Houthis’ political strategy to maintain and expand their power within Yemen.
In June 2018, Saudi-led coalition forces besieged Hudaydah, the Houthi-controlled Red Sea port and a key entry point for humanitarian aid. By the end of the year, the UN-brokered Stockholm Agreement secured a ceasefire in Hudaydah. Yet the agreement did not compel Houthi forces to leave the city, and Houthi violations of the ceasefire continued over the following years. As the conflict in Yemen seemed to reach a deadlock by the end of 2022, with the UN unable to preserve a temporary nationwide ceasefire, international attention towards the conflict in Yemen had waned. This was only augmented by the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, which shifted international and even regional focus to the global energy crisis.
However, the Houthis have taken advantage of these geopolitical realities to reinforce socio-political governance in the areas under their control. Before the recent attacks on global targets, the Houthis had established their authority mainly in the north of Yemen, including Sana’a, but likely reached the limits of their territorial expansion: despite renewed offensives, they have been unable to take over the city of Marib and its valuable oilfields, while the south remains under the control of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), an independent political and military body and backed by the United Arab Emirates. In other words, their targets within Yemen are now constrained—leaving them room to pivot and assert their military capabilities on the global stage.
The ongoing backchannel negotiations between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia provide another critical contextual element to understand the Red Sea attacks. As part of potential deal with Riyadh, the Houthis hope to be recognized as a legitimate authority in Yemen, to end Saudi Arabia’s military intervention and reduce the threat of STC-led attacks, and receive international aid to avoid an economic crisis. They may believe that by attacking container ships and posing a serious threat to the Western-led economic order—to which Saudi Arabia belongs—they can increase their leverage at the negotiation table to secure their domestic priorities. Yet so far, Riyadh has stayed on the sidelines to avoid provoking direct Houthi attacks on their territory.
Yemenis have been calling on the international community, and particularly the UN, to revisit their policies towards war-ravaged country. Despite the UN’s involvement, the proxy war in Yemen was primarily a contest between Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran, which impaired the role of other potential intervening parties. After nearly a decade, many assumed this unresolved conflict would remain isolated and contained within Yemen—an expectation that has now been utterly destroyed. With international attention refocused on Yemen, there is a new possibility to lay the groundwork for sustainable peace.
Dr. Betul Dogan-Akkas is a researcher of the Arab Gulf, with a joint degree PhD in Gulf Studies from Durham University and Qatar University. Her research examines foreign policy, security strategies, and political culture in the GCC states.
