Afghanistan: Fighting a Pandemic in a War Zone
Afghanistan’s early measures to stem the spread of the coronavirus have yielded limited success. On February 24, the country reported its first confirmed case and three suspected cases—all patients in Herat province who had recently returned from Qom, the epicenter of the outbreak in neighboring Iran. Within days, the national government indefinitely closed all schools and banned public gatherings in the province. To enhance preparedness, the government also set up a high-level emergency coordination committee and various subcommittees tasked with raising public awareness and surveilling new cases.
Within a month of its first case, Afghanistan had not only confirmed cases in twelve of its thirty-four provinces, but also reported its first fatality, an individual with no history of foreign travel. Further, with just two laboratories—one in Kabul that could conduct over fifty tests per day and another that was recently established in Herat—limited testing capacity severely restricted the country’s ability to detect and contain cases. Faced with an impending crisis, on March 25, Afghan Minister of Public Health Ferozuddin Feroz stressed that if guidelines are ignored, “it is predicted that about 80 percent of Afghans will be infected with the coronavirus and about 70,000 will be hospitalized.”
By early April, Afghanistan entered the community transmission phase. As of May 20, the coronavirus had spread to every province, with Afghanistan reporting 8,145 confirmed cases, and 187 deaths. Doubling down on its efforts to combat the disease, the Afghan government decentralized decisionmaking to empower governors to lead the coronavirus response. Kabul and Herat provinces were the first to enforce measured lockdowns in late March that restricted nonessential travel, limited the number of people who can travel together, imposed curfews, or closed parts of cities. While eighteen additional provinces instituted similar measures, many began to ease lockdowns around the start of Ramadan in April, although the national government had extended the nationwide lockdown through May 24.
With assistance from the World Health Organization (WHO), Afghanistan has quadrupled testing capacity. Currently, nine laboratories are operational, with plans for an additional eleven. Nevertheless, with only around 22,600 samples tested through May 14, coronavirus diagnostics remain limited. Limited lab capacity is exacerbated by a shortage of reagents and RNA extraction kits that persists despite international assistance.
Beyond testing, Afghanistan’s crisis is compounded by several other factors. First, protracted conflict has left a fragile healthcare system plagued by shortages of resources and health professionals, especially in rural areas. Second, cases of people escaping from quarantine facilities indicate low public awareness and lack of trust in the public health system. Finally, the government’s response is constrained by continuing conflict, a fragile political order, and largely open borders with Pakistan and Iran, through which returning migrants have poured in. While Afghanistan is making efforts to tackle the public health crisis, its limited resources, security situation, and political fragmentation present serious challenges.
Sharanya Rajiv is a former senior program coordinator and research assistant at Carnegie India.
Interview with David Loyn, Senior Visiting Research Fellow, War Studies Department, King’s College, London
How does Afghanistan perceive the role of international institutions in combating this pandemic?
The WHO has set up new testing laboratories and training programs in Afghanistan with particular support from the EU and USAID. U.S. military forces are the only entity with significant air transport capacity, which they are using to move emergency supplies around the country. A prolonged drought has led to significant food shortages, which are worsened by the lockdown and its associated increase in poverty, so there will be further calls for food aid by the World Food Program. Major humanitarian organizations in the International Committee of the Red Cross and the UN families have a substantial footprint in Afghanistan and are bound to scale up their programs accordingly—despite a fractious relationship with the government of President Ashraf Ghani in recent years. The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan has a new head—Deborah Lyons, the former Canadian ambassador to Afghanistan—who is likely to play a more activist role than her predecessor, the long-serving Tadamichi Yamamoto.
Given that South Asia is the most densely populated region in the world, what are the opportunities and challenges for the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) amid this pandemic?
Afghanistan’s long border with Iran represents one of the key routes for infection into South Asia. Tens of thousands of Afghan refugees who had made their home in Iran have returned to Afghanistan since Iran became an early hotspot for the virus, putting more pressure on weak health systems. Iran has shown little global solidarity in managing the crisis, disguising its own losses and failing to disclose information, and the early lifting of its lockdown has sparked fears of a second spike.
Within SAARC, India’s delivery of hydroxychloroquine to Afghanistan and offer of medical support teams represent positive signs of regional cooperation. In contrast, there has been little cross-border cooperation with Pakistan, although a recent dispute over border crossings was quickly resolved between Ghani and Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, General Qamar Bajwa. The likelihood at this western edge of the SAARC region is that the pandemic will reduce the capacity of Afghanistan to seek cooperation from its regional neighbors. Since Afghanistan links South and Central Asia, this could be one of the worst strategic consequences of the crisis.
Given Afghanistan’s reliance on international aid, vast informal economy, and labor migration to neighboring countries, what are the implications of the coronavirus-induced global economic crisis?
As one of the most fragile economies in the world, Afghanistan faces a serious threat from the global slowdown. Aid fatigue from donor nations was already evident in 2014 following the steep reduction at a moment of political and security transition. A further hit this year will have profound implications for security. In the past, periods of poverty have made it easier for the Taliban to recruit. The threat of infection from the new virus is not being taken seriously in the Afghan countryside, where extended families living in close proximity would find social distancing hard. In the south, the poppy harvest is now in full swing and will not stop for a lockdown imposed by Kabul.
How will the coronavirus pandemic affect the peace process in Afghanistan?
The most obvious impact on prospects for peace is the loss of trust that could be built up in face-to-face contacts. When peace processes have worked in the past, they have always required leaps of faith, which only come through building personal trust—the lubricating oil necessary to build a workable negotiation with an enduring outcome.
It has taken the Ghani government some time to build a negotiating position after being sidelined by the United States, which negotiated its withdrawal with the Taliban. The recent appointment of the highly experienced former minister Masoom Stanekzai as the chief negotiator is a positive sign, although the appointment of Abdullah Abdullah, former chief executive of Afghanistan’s national unity government, to oversee the process as part of a power-sharing deal could slow things down. The process has inevitably become bogged down over prisoner exchanges, demanded by the United States as a confidence-building step in its deal with the Taliban. To avoid mass casualties in jails from COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, separate agreements have been reached in the meantime to release more than 60 percent of all prisoners.
Amid continued political fragmentation and in the absence of a nationwide ceasefire, how can Afghanistan bolster its response to the pandemic?
The Taliban tried to win public support by filming themselves in masks and gowns telling people to self-isolate. However, there has been no letup in the fighting on either side, which would be the best scenario for Afghan public health. The Taliban’s response to Ghani’s call for a ceasefire was to blame international and Afghan government forces for increasing levels of violence that supposedly forced them to respond.
It took two months and a cut of $1 billion in aid by the United States to force a political compromise after parallel presidential inaugurations at the beginning of March by both the leading candidates in the Afghan election. Abdullah won 50 percent of the posts available for appointment—again curtailing Ghani’s ability to run his own government. The end of the stalemate will mean that the government can now focus on the pandemic as well as other urgent business.
One advantage of the lockdown in cities is that it was impossible for the armed gangs who were gathering in support of Abdullah to make trouble, so the negotiations were not carried out against the specific threat of violence.
India: The Pandemic’s Ill-Timed Economic Shockwaves
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken a multifaceted approach to fighting the coronavirus pandemic, guided by an array of national task forces. He has suspended international and domestic travel, implemented contact tracing and exposure notification, expanded diagnostic capacity, and scaled up manufacturing of medical equipment. “Had India not adopted a holistic and integrated approach,” he noted when extending the nationwide lockdown, “taking quick and decisive action, the situation in India today would have been completely different.”
This well-coordinated strategy has involved the scientific community and private sector in the development and production of testing kits, personal protective equipment, ventilators, and other respiratory devices. Recognizing the need to scale up testing, New Delhi expanded its diagnostic network to include 391 government laboratories and 164 private labs. With its ramped-up capacity, India has tested 2,512,388 samples as of May 20. Following the model pursued by other countries, the government has also launched a contact tracing app to identify, notify, and support people who may have been exposed to infected patients.
Despite these aggressive measures, the caseload had steadily mounted, reaching 107,819 reported cases and 3,434 deaths as of May 20. More than 1,200 coronavirus cases reported in Asia’s largest slum, Dharavi, only add to the bleak reality of the situation. Moreover, the sudden nationwide lockdown has proved to be a massive logistical challenge for migrant workers. Travel disruptions, vulnerable supply chains, and confusion about which essential services can operate have greatly affected those engaged in the informal sector. Although the Indian government has announced a relief package and is closely working with states and NGOs to provide food and shelter to these stranded workers, the measures do not seem sufficient to assuage the plight of those affected by an extended lockdown.
India is currently considering how best to ease its restrictions. Despite scaled-up testing and enhanced contact tracing, the country’s public health infrastructure must also be prepared for a rapid surge in cases in the period after May 31, when the nationwide lockdown is scheduled to end.
Shruti Sharma is a research analyst with the Technology and International Affairs Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She works primarily on the safety, security, and ethical implications of emerging biotechnologies.
Interview with Rakesh Sood, former Indian diplomat and Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, India
How does India perceive the role of international institutions in combating this pandemic?
All international institutions have been found wanting. Political organizations like the UN Security Council, G7, and G20 have failed to take action because of lack of leadership. The United States has been reluctant to lead, European countries are preoccupied, and China is more intent on changing global perceptions of its role than taking a lead by investing effort and capital. The specialized World Health Organization could have been the natural driver for collective policy action but has been caught up in the U.S.-China blame game and lost credibility.
Given that South Asia is the most densely populated region in the world, what are the opportunities and challenges for the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) amid this pandemic?
Since even countries in better integrated regions like the EU and Southeast Asia—with much more efficient regional mechanisms and institutions—have leaned on national measures rather than regional coordination to respond to the pandemic, it is unrealistic to expect SAARC to play an effective role. As the region’s largest economy, India alone can support its neighbors. That support is bound to be limited and, in most cases, bilateral.
Confronting the risks of complex global supply chains has reinforced nationalistic rhetoric around economic protectionism. What will be the implications for the global economy if more countries remodel their supply chains and use domestic industry to bridge the gap?
Extended global supply chains were already being strained, largely on account of U.S.-China trade tensions that had spilled over into the technology sector. The coronavirus pandemic has highlighted additional concerns about supply chains for medical equipment and pharmaceutical products. Where possible, supply chains will certainly be shortened and national capacities further developed. However, not all countries have equal recourse to such policies. Larger economies will have a natural advantage, while smaller economies will do what they can to make their supply chains more resilient.
Given that India is mostly dependent on China for the supply of raw materials needed to manufacture hydroxychloroquine and other pharmaceuticals, why did India choose to remove exemptions for drug exports?
Its decision was driven by political factors. These drugs had already been brought under a restricted category that authorized the government to clear exports on a case-by-case basis. The previous decision to impose a blanket ban was ill-advised: it took away the government’s leeway and its quick reversal caused avoidable embarrassment.
How do you assess the impact of this pandemic on the informal economy of India? What measures can be taken to support the job market?
Estimates suggest 85–93 percent of the total workforce is engaged in the informal economy, largely in agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and trade. These roughly 430 million workers labor without protection or regulation by the state; amid the disruptions of the pandemic, they will need food and income support for at least four to six months. At a ballpark figure of 10,000 Indian rupees per worker ($132), this works out to over 2 trillion Indian rupees ($26.4 billion), approximately 1 percent of India’s GDP. However, the longer the lockdown continues, even if partially eased, the more the economy will shrink. India will also have to bear significant medical costs, though those may be somewhat constrained by the limited capacity of its healthcare system.
Maldives: A New Threat to an At-Risk Archipelago
The spread of the coronavirus pandemic poses dire threats to small island nations like Maldives. With its very foundation at stake, Maldives has invested in enhancing its bilateral and multilateral partnerships to curb the spread of the virus and reinvigorate its economy.
On March 12, Maldives declared one of South Asia’s first states of public health emergency, allowing authorities to enact restrictive containment measures such as a nationwide shutdown of educational institutions, guesthouses and hotels, and nonessential services. To limit the spread of the virus, the country closed its borders to arrivals from some of the worst-hit countries and later suspended on-arrival visas. The government also decided to postpone local council elections that had been scheduled to be held in April.
By May 20, the archipelagic nation had reported a total of 1,186 confirmed cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, including four deaths. Given the country’s capacity constraints, the Maldivian government has relied heavily on bilateral relationships and multilateral organizations for essential medical supplies. To enhance testing capacity, the World Health Organization (WHO) donated 11,000 test kits to Maldives, and the government has revealed plans to bring in over 19,000 test kits. Private actors like Medtech Maldives have also stepped up by bringing in shipments of test kits and personal protective equipment.
With its limited medical infrastructure, Maldives would face particularly high risks from a serious outbreak among its population of more than half a million people. The nation’s large migrant worker population could prove to be another big hurdle. As a major recipient of aid from China, India, and other Asian countries, Maldives has often looked for other avenues of humanitarian and medical assistance over the years. Maldives has also continued to work closely with the Indian government to evacuate its citizens from Wuhan, China, the origin of the coronavirus outbreak.
For the Maldives, the slowdown in the global tourism industry will have dire consequences, as will suppressed construction activity. Tourism directly and indirectly accounts for two-thirds of Maldives’ GDP. While the government has already announced an economic recovery plan of 2.5 billion Maldivian rufiyaa ($161.3 million), only time will tell the full financial impact of the pandemic and the way forward for the country.
Rhea Menon is a senior communications coordinator and research assistant at Carnegie India.
Interview with Nilanthi Samaranayake, Director of the Strategy and Policy Analysis Program at CNA, a nonprofit research and analysis organization in Arlington, Virginia
How does Maldives perceive the role of international institutions in combating this pandemic?
As a small island nation, Maldives appears to understand its need for contributions from international institutions to combat the coronavirus. It is seeking financial assistance from the Asian Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the International Finance Corporation, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The World Bank recently approved a $7.3 million project to help Maldives respond to the virus and build capacity in its health system to enhance virus detection.
Given that South Asia is the most densely populated region in the world, what are the opportunities and challenges for the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) amid this pandemic?
SAARC has generally been viewed as a moribund institution inasmuch as the long-standing conflict between India and Pakistan has limited its ability to reach consensus on important issues. However, the SAARC Disaster Management Center has played a critical coordinating function to limit the spread of the virus, with its website serving as a central data repository.
At the outset, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi brought together regional leaders and proposed a SAARC emergency fund. His decision to work through SAARC was surprising given how much emphasis his administration has placed on the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation as an alternative regional institution. India offered $10 million to the emergency fund, while Sri Lanka pledged $5 million, and even Bhutan offered $100,000. For its part, Maldives offered $200,000 to the fund, despite its own significant domestic needs. Though these early developments are encouraging, the persistent India-Pakistan conflict will likely continue to limit the potential for regional cooperation through SAARC.
What are the implications of the pandemic on the country’s tourism-driven economy?
The pandemic is unquestionably affecting Maldives’ luxury tourism industry, which accounts for up to two-thirds of the country’s gross domestic product. Maldives has already had its credit rating downgraded, and one estimate projects it could face a foreign currency shortfall of up to $450 million. However, the pandemic is in part exacerbating economic troubles and external debt burdens that Maldives was struggling with even before the crisis. Foreign currency earnings from tourism are critical for the country to pay off debts and maintain sufficient exchange reserves. These are the long-term challenges that Maldives has confronted in the past decade as it has become an upper-middle-income economy. While this is an overall positive development, countries achieving this status lose access to the concessionary loans from international institutions, including the Asian Development Bank and the IMF, on which their growth had depended.
The IMF has approved roughly $29 million to help alleviate the pressure on Maldives’ economy and foreign exchange reserves. India has also offered to swap $150 million in currency to help Maldives manage its cash flow during this difficult period. However, these stopgap measures will not address the long-term, structural threats to the country’s economy that can only be alleviated through the adoption of effective debt-management strategies.
Given the nature of the virus and its transmission, many countries are turning inward. Is Maldives trying to reduce its dependence on imports of staple foods and medicines during this pandemic?
There is no concrete evidence that Maldives is actively pursuing broad-based steps to reduce its dependence on imports. Like many other island nations, Maldives has geographic circumstances that necessitate the import of critical goods such as food and medicine. Currently, the low-lying, archipelagic country’s biggest existential threat is rising sea levels.
Delivery of health services has been hampered by the country’s geography, limited numbers of tertiary hospitals, and lack of skilled professionals. How does the government plan to address these issues both during and after the crisis?
Maldives has consistently relied on external assistance to compensate for its insufficient domestic capacity to respond to the pandemic. India’s assistance is significant; this is not surprising given the history of close bilateral military cooperation between the two countries. The Indian Army set up a laboratory in Maldives for testing presumed coronavirus patients, staffed by a fourteen-person medical team. Meanwhile, the Indian Air Force delivered tons of medicine and hospital supplies. Other countries have provided supplies as well, such as China and Bangladesh, but India appears to be the largest source of aid.
Pakistan: An Emboldened Army and a Polarized Public
The coronavirus pandemic in Pakistan took root due to inadequate testing of travelers returning from Iran, including the country’s first confirmed case, a patient diagnosed in Karachi on February 26. The disease spread during March and then spiked in April as community transmission accelerated. As of May 20, Pakistan has reported 45,898 confirmed cases, including 985 deaths and 13,101 recovered patients. While Pakistan’s government aimed to conduct 25,000 tests a day by the end of April, to date, the highest number it has conducted is 14,818 on May 15.
One of the biggest challenges for Pakistan will be the economic impact of the virus. Less than a year ago, Pakistan was forced to comply with its thirteenth bailout agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which included a devaluation of the rupee and an increase in utility prices. In February, Pakistan’s economy had been showing certain positive, albeit limited, trends—such as reserves of the State Bank of Pakistan hitting a twenty-one-month high. Now, however, the World Bank expects Pakistan’s real GDP growth will contract by 1.3 percent in 2020 and reach only 0.9 percent in 2021 under its baseline scenario. Pakistan’s informal economy, accounting for 72 percent of employment, has weathered previous financial crises but will be hit particularly hard as tens of millions of workers, who rely on cash-based sectors to meet their daily demands, will see their movement, and the movement of goods, curtailed.
Another consequence of the pandemic has been an increase in the Pakistani army’s involvement in everyday affairs. Even as the virus was spreading, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan resisted calls to impose a sweeping lockdown out of concern for the economic costs. On March 22, Khan affirmed that the government would not institute lockdown measures. However, within twenty-four hours, the army announced that it would oversee a shutdown to curb the spread of the virus—a swift step that marked a sharp contrast with Khan’s indecisiveness.
The Pakistani army has been fanned out across the country to assist civilian authorities. Its deployment is pursuant to Article 245 of the constitution, which has never before been invoked nationwide and states that no high court enjoys power in any area where the armed forces are operating, thus granting the army unchecked power. In addition to being sidelined by the army, the central government has also been criticized by opposition leaders in provincial governments, who are taking autonomous decisions to combat the pandemic.
Recognizing the challenges faced by society’s most vulnerable populations, the government has announced a financial stimulus package that includes 150 billion Pakistani rupees ($937.5 million) for low-income families to support monthly cash payments to households of 3,000 Pakistani rupees ($18.75). Despite these measures, Pakistan’s battle with the pandemic will still have to contend with a stronger army, political polarization, and weak health infrastructure.
Shreyas Shende is a research assistant and executive assistant to the director at Carnegie India.
Interview with Ayesha Siddiqa, research associate at SOAS South Asia Institute, SOAS University of London
How does Pakistan perceive the role of international institutions in combating this pandemic?
Pakistan has a long-standing relationship with the World Health Organization (WHO), which is guiding countries around the world during the pandemic. While COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, is a new and immediate concern, polio and other infectious diseases have started to resurface in Pakistan. However, Islamabad is also keen to seek further bilateral cooperation from allies like China, which has already sent medical equipment and aid.
The most important category of international organizations for Pakistan appear to be those in control of resources. Pakistan’s government has approached multilateral aid donors like the IMF, the Paris Club, and G20 to seek relief in debt repayment and help with meeting its other expenses. Yet Islamabad’s overall strategy during this period does not preclude its military-strategic sensitivities. It has remained focused on the UN to bring international attention to Indian-occupied Kashmir and the state of pandemic there.
Given that South Asia is the most densely populated region in the world, what are the opportunities and challenges for the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) amid this pandemic?
Regional organizations like SAARC must cooperate to share strategies, medicine, and even personnel to fight the pandemic. However, the Pakistani government’s suspicion of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has impeded progress on most regional initiatives. During a recent SAARC meeting initiated by India, Pakistan’s representative drew attention to the Kashmir crisis. Important as the situation in Kashmir is, Islamabad’s position has kept SAARC from moving forward on a range of other issues. Of course, this does not rule out bilateral cooperation between countries of the region.
With the Pakistani army deployed to assist federal and provincial governments with the pandemic response, how will its role evolve with respect to matters apart from foreign policy and security?
The military’s role has grown in part because civilian leadership has proved ineffective and unable to negotiate with provincial governments. Though units deployed around the country are cautious in approaching civilians due to fear of contracting the virus, the army has seen a tremendous increase in its organizational power. Khan has also suggested use of the Inter-Services Intelligence agency’s tracking system to deal with the pandemic, which could be used more broadly to counter dissent.
The hybrid civil-military regime in Pakistan creates greater comfort with military involvement in civilian affairs, which helps explain why former director general of inter-services public relations, Lt. General (retd) Asim Bajwa, was brought in as a special adviser to the prime minister for information. The civilian government and the military share opposition to the eighteenth amendment to Pakistan’s constitution, which grants financial autonomy to the provinces at the expense of the federal budget (including national defense). The civilian government is also centralizing overall decisionmaking and has set up a National Coordination Committee (NCC), headed by a three-star general, to fight the pandemic. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), a key organization in dealing with natural emergencies, is already headed by an army officer. Both the NCC and NDMA deal with international agencies and distribute resources, acting as the face of the state response.
As the virus emerged in China, Pakistan’s all-weather ally, has there been an impact on local perceptions of China?
Sino-Pakistani relations are strong but nevertheless have their limits. The Pakistani government did not stop flights to and from China until late in the course of the pandemic. The two states cooperated on the understanding that China would not send home Pakistani students, especially those studying in Wuhan. Beijing agreed to take care of these students and keep them in quarantine. Moreover, China provided medical assistance to Pakistan, including ventilators and a team of doctors. Such decisions have maintained positive perceptions of Beijing, and China may play an even more central role in Pakistan’s postpandemic economic recovery.
Given preexisting challenges, the crucial role of the informal economy, and substantial unemployment, what steps can Pakistan take to mitigate the economic impact of the virus?
Pakistan must sustain its core industries and feed its population of 212 million people, while servicing its $110 billion in debt. Its rate of GDP growth has slowed from 5.5 percent in 2018 to 2.4 percent in 2020, according to the World Bank, though the IMF predicts a further fall to -1.5 percent this year. So far, the government has adopted a conservative approach, seeking funds from multilateral aid donors and assistance from the Pakistani diaspora network. The IMF provided a $1.39 billion relief package that will likely help pay off external debts. Islamabad is also negotiating with China for extensions on $30 billion in Belt and Road Initiative loans.
There is a serious need to renegotiate foreign debt and divert resources to health, education, and fiscal support to individuals and families. In addition, the government must reform domestic taxation to increase the share paid by the rich. However, there is very little momentum behind plans for economic restructuring.
Sri Lanka: Balancing Public Health and Centralized Power
Sri Lanka was one of the few countries in South Asia to take proactive measures as the coronavirus pandemic spread, yet its fight against the virus has still hit political and economic roadblocks. As of May 20, the country has reported a total of 1,027 coronavirus cases and nine deaths.
Sri Lanka’s first coronavirus case was confirmed in late January, when a Chinese tourist was hospitalized after falling sick. As the number of cases rose, the government decreed a nationwide curfew starting March 20. The curfew played an important role in reducing community transmission and enabling better surveillance, noted Deepa Gamage, a consultant epidemiologist at Sri Lanka’s health ministry. The government also deployed large numbers of armed forces to aid the civilian government’s fight against the pandemic, particularly by building quarantine centers and conducting contact tracing. Sri Lanka eventually lifted its curfew on April 20, but then quickly reinstated it after a spike in new cases, largely within the Sri Lankan navy.
Overall, Sri Lanka’s pandemic strategy has been effective. Thanks in part to help from abroad, it can now test more than 1,000 people per day. China donated 20,000 test kits, 100,000 surgical masks, and 50,000 pairs of medical gloves. In addition, Australia pledged 10,200 pairs of protective overalls and 200,000 gloves for Sri Lankan defense forces involved in the fight against the virus. India has also stepped in by providing thirteen metric tons of essential medicine and medical gloves.
The pandemic has important implications for Sri Lanka’s domestic politics and ethnic relations. As of this writing, the Sri Lankan parliament remains dissolved, concentrating unprecedented power in the hands of the central leadership with no democratic opposition. Given the strict restrictions on movement, the parliamentary elections scheduled to take place on April 25 were postponed. Meanwhile, religious tensions were inflamed when several Muslims were forced to cremate their dead, contrary to Islamic tradition. Sri Lanka’s social fabric had already been under added strain since the 2019 Easter bombings.
The coronavirus has seriously weakened Sri Lanka’s economy. The tea and garment industries—which produce some of the country’s top exports—have come to a grinding halt. While the tea industry is aiming to ameliorate the impact by reviving regular tea auctions, which would provide the government with foreign exchange reserves, the garment industry faces the threat of mass unemployment due to loss of cash flow. Meanwhile, Sri Lankan tourism has seen a massive dip owing to border closures. Nearly two-thirds of Sri Lanka’s workforce is informal, and the restrictions on mobility have severely affected workers’ daily earnings. To provide support, the government has announced an allowance for workers from the informal sector. It remains to be seen if these economic strategies can see the country through a prolonged lockdown, as domestic politics grow fractious and ethnoreligious tensions escalate.
Raghuveer Nidumolu is a Knowledge Transfer program coordinator at Carnegie India.
Interview with Jayanath Colombage, Additional Secretary to the President of Sri Lanka for Foreign Relations and Director General of the Institute of National Security Studies
How does Sri Lanka perceive the role of international institutions in combating this pandemic?
International institutions like the World Health Organization (WHO) are the leading multilateral authority for handling a pandemic, but its credibility is now under threat. Given that this coronavirus is a new strain, WHO officials needed time to identify its RNA and behavior before they could recommend ways to tackle it. Although international institutions are important, they take time to respond effectively, so individual countries must do what they can to prepare for future pandemics.
Like many developing countries, Sri Lanka has received loans in the past from institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the Asian Development Bank. These institutions can help countries weather the pandemic by declaring a moratorium on such loans, postponing repayment until their economies can bounce back.
Given that South Asia is the most densely populated region in the world, what are the opportunities and challenges for the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) amid this pandemic?
The initiatives undertaken by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi—including recent video conference calls and a coronavirus development fund—have pulled SAARC out of three years of relative hibernation. The organization can now better serve as a platform for South Asian countries to come together and face this disastrous situation together.
For a country like Sri Lanka, SAARC can provide various opportunities. Sri Lanka’s top export markets are in Europe and the United States, where trade has collapsed because of the pandemic. Sri Lanka and other South Asian countries would benefit from a regional approach to economic ties rather than relying totally on a globalized world. During the pandemic, such an approach is especially important for the production and distribution of test kits, personal protective equipment (PPE), and other medical supplies. The region—and, indeed, much of the world—already depends heavily on India’s exports of medicines and pharmaceuticals.
How has the Sri Lankan government handled the coronavirus outbreak?
When the coronavirus was spreading in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa set up a committee to study the crisis and make recommendations on prevention, testing, and treatment measures. The committee took into account WHO guidelines and regularly monitored the situation in China. These measures helped Sri Lanka promptly detect its first patient. The government brought back Sri Lankan students from Wuhan and other parts of China and sent them to quarantine centers almost immediately.
Currently, with the Sri Lankan parliament dissolved, the government has made decisions more quickly. The president, the prime minister, and a team of fifteen cabinet members are now directly involved in coronavirus response strategies—monitoring the situation, consulting experts, and issuing directives and guidelines.
Given Sri Lanka’s history of civil strife, will it be easy or difficult for the government to employ military aid alongside civilian government initiatives?
The Sri Lankan military was only called in when there was a need to set up quarantine centers and provide medical assistance. The military was also involved in contact tracing and in producing and sourcing ventilators, ICU beds, PPE, and other supplies. No other organization in Sri Lanka would have been able to take on those tasks as readily.
When the virus hit the country, it did not respect ethnicity. Although initially there were some protests in Tamil-dominated areas when medical camps were being set up, resistance to military assistance cooled as the gravity of the pandemic set in.
How has the pandemic impacted Sri Lanka’s informal economy? What steps, if any, are being taken to address this issue?
Financial assistance is being provided to workers in the informal sector, which has been hit hard by curfew measures and mobility restrictions. The government has also allowed a six-month moratorium on loan payments and plans to provide more economic relief through reduced interest rates. Sri Lanka is also keen to revive critical economic sectors like the tea and garment industries that produce a major share of the country’s exports and generate substantial foreign exchange revenue. In the future, focusing development attention on agriculture and small- and medium-sized enterprises will reduce the economy’s dependence on global markets.