Serbia and North Macedonia are exploring alternatives to EU membership that would bring economic benefits and relieve them of accession-related demands. But their turn away from EU integration would disadvantage both the union and the Western Balkans.
To prepare for a larger union, the EU needs institutional reform. But enlargement and deeper integration have always gone hand in hand and should not be seen as mutually exclusive.
The EU’s enlargement momentum, fueled by Russia’s war against Ukraine, is wearing off. To make political conditionality work, the union must prioritize securing buy-in from candidate countries’ elites and civil society.
Being pro-EU does not win politicians many votes in the Western Balkans and the Caucasus. There, Viktor Orbán’s version of an illiberal Europe appears to be the union’s top-rated political export.
As the EU accelerates the process of adding new member states, it also needs to rethink the relationship between enlargement and democracy. The union should develop a “Copenhagen plus” approach to encourage more comprehensive democratic reforms in candidate countries.
The opening of EU accession talks marks an important milestone for Bosnia, where ethnic tensions run high. But progress on the EU track is no remedy for the chronic crisis besetting the country’s politics.
The new government’s pledge to align with EU standards makes Montenegro the likely next addition to the bloc. But fractious domestic politics could yet derail the country’s European ambitions.
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