The military value of Russia’s strike on Ukraine using the new Oreshnik missile was limited. The Kremlin’s real intent was to intimidate Europeans.

Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Alexander Baunov, editor-in-chief of Carnegie Politika and a senior fellow at Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, to discuss the upcoming Trump presidency and what effect it may have on Russian foreign policy and the war in Ukraine.

Minsk is counting on the new U.S. administration’s actions vis-a-vis Russia and Ukraine to bring it out of diplomatic isolation without meaningful concessions on its part. But will Lukashenko’s ambitious gamble pay off?

The Kremlin sees its anti-Western alliance with Tehran as testing a new model of international relations—and does not want it stymied.

If even a peace proposal from Trump is rejected by Putin, then it means the demise of the Russian “victory plan” and any remote prospect of ending the war.

Trump’s victory has reconfirmed Putin’s view that the west is so politically unstable that policies can drastically change with every election cycle.