Minsk is counting on the new U.S. administration’s actions vis-a-vis Russia and Ukraine to bring it out of diplomatic isolation without meaningful concessions on its part. But will Lukashenko’s ambitious gamble pay off?
Some in Moscow see a Trump presidency as a window of opportunity; others believe Russia should focus on pressing home its military advantage in Ukraine.
BRICS is emerging as a sandbox for experimentation with various non-USD instruments, including payment systems, cryptocurrencies, digitalized mechanisms for trade in national currencies or through barter, and hubs for commodities trading outside of dollar dominance.
The exchange is not just the end of the story about the release of certain people, but also the beginning of a story about an injection of fresh blood into the Russian opposition abroad, and its relationship both with independent Russians inside the country, and with the outside world.
The exchange was not accompanied by any rhetoric of a reset in Russia-U.S. relations—instead, it was like a divorcing couple dividing up assets.
For decades, the West has been unable to build an effective strategy vis-à-vis Belarus due to the country’s limited geopolitical importance, its growing dependence on Moscow, and the absence of leverage over Minsk’s strategic decision-making.
We appear to be witnessing the emergence of a united front against Washington that extends from the Baltic Sea to the Persian Gulf.
