Moscow’s approach to Moldova is to play for time and keep the country in geopolitical limbo by stoking internal divisions, stalling reforms, and fueling disenchantment with the pro-European course.

Amid the war in Ukraine, almost every politician in Moldova wants to avoid being seen as strongly pro-Russian. But public support for Russia remains significant.  

Former prosecutor general Alexandr Stoianoglo already has the support of Moldova’s most popular opposition politician in his bid to become president.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has left a group of “in-between” European countries more vulnerable and insecure than ever before. This arc of instability spans from the South Caucasus through Moldova to the Western Balkans.

Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, and Serbia are caught in between Russia and the EU, building ties with the latter even as the former seeks to maintain influence there and deter the West.

Having lost much of its support among Moldovans following its invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin is prepared to use the Gagauzia region to destabilize the situation in Moldova and undermine its pro-EU president, Maia Sandu.