Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Turkey has sought to maintain relations with both Russia and the West: an approach it will strive to continue.

Moscow has little to gain from a major flare-up in the Red Sea, which means Washington’s efforts to stop Houthi attacks on shipping are likely to be quietly welcomed.

Events in the Middle East have helped the Kremlin convince itself that Russia’s foreign policy in recent years has been the right one.

Moscow’s rapprochement with Hamas and the subsequent deterioration in ties with Israel signals the failure of Russia’s long-standing goal of appearing as a great power by acting as a mediator in the Middle East.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia actively borrowed Western—primarily European—legal and bureaucratic practices. Now that the European path appears to be closed off entirely, the Middle East is fast emerging as an alternative route.

Shared support for Hamas likely means better diplomatic relations between Moscow and Ankara. But any warming of ties will only be situational.