It might seem that within BRICS, Russia should be overshadowed by the giant economies of China and India, especially the former. Yet what is happening is almost the opposite, with Russia effectively taking over the leading role in the club.
Russia-China competition and an expanded membership have turned the Eurasian security grouping into little more than a talking shop.
Beijing’s refusal to take part does not mean it wants to keep its distance from the Ukraine war. Instead, it will look for allies in the Global South.
Central Asian and South Caucasus nations should use the interest in East–West trade through their territory to boost regional connectivity.
The war in Ukraine has been an enormous gift from Russia to China, boosting the status of the yuan and opening up the Russian market for Chinese companies.
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine is accelerating the process of China edging out Russia from Central and Eastern Europe.
One lesson is that China needs to prepare for a long conflict because the West lacks staying power.
