Western leaders’ apathy and lack of interest in Belarus risk creating a self-fulfilling prophecy that leaves Belarus trapped in Moscow’s smothering embrace more or less indefinitely. This paper identifies options for a more effective Western strategy that takes into account existing opportunities and limitations.

As far as the Belarusian regime is concerned, the threat comes not from its own society, but from external enemies who will use every opportunity to repeat the mass unrest of 2020. That means that every possible weak spot must be shored up.

The Belarusian authorities have taken steps to limit Russian businesses from buying up too many local companies.

Just the appearance of a body like the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly after the elections will legitimize conversations about succession within the ruling elite.

Belarus’ democratic forces recognise the sad reality: the connection between them and the majority of Belarusians inside the country is broken.

By imagining an attack or even an invasion, Lukashenko is increasing the risks of war coming to Belarus.