Minsk is counting on the new U.S. administration’s actions vis-a-vis Russia and Ukraine to bring it out of diplomatic isolation without meaningful concessions on its part. But will Lukashenko’s ambitious gamble pay off?
Carnegie Politika podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Artyom Shraibman, a non-resident fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, to discuss his new paper for Carnegie Endowment, "Getting Off the Back Foot: Guiding Principles for a Proactive Western Strategy on Belarus."
Western leaders’ apathy and lack of interest in Belarus risk creating a self-fulfilling prophecy that leaves Belarus trapped in Moscow’s smothering embrace more or less indefinitely. This paper identifies options for a more effective Western strategy that takes into account existing opportunities and limitations.
As far as the Belarusian regime is concerned, the threat comes not from its own society, but from external enemies who will use every opportunity to repeat the mass unrest of 2020. That means that every possible weak spot must be shored up.
The Belarusian authorities have taken steps to limit Russian businesses from buying up too many local companies.
Just the appearance of a body like the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly after the elections will legitimize conversations about succession within the ruling elite.
Belarus’ democratic forces recognise the sad reality: the connection between them and the majority of Belarusians inside the country is broken.
