A successful peace agreement with Azerbaijan would mean Armenia would have more options and would be able to lessen its historical dependence on Russia and pursue a stronger partnership with the West. A continuation of the status quo gives Russia more opportunities to reapply its traditional levers of control.
Yerevan should not delay if it wants to integrate with the West, diversify its foreign policy, and build a new model of bilateral relations with Moscow.
The Kremlin’s options include attempting to organize a coup in Yerevan, or applying economic pressure. Neither is particularly likely.
Rapid geopolitical change is curtailing Russian power in the South Caucasus, boosting the influence of Middle Eastern countries and bookending the region’s “post-Soviet” history.
Despite their bloody history and repeated recent disappointments, a long-term accommodation between Armenia and Azerbaijan is within reach.
Yerevan does not want to repeat the mistakes of the past by relying too much on a single ally.
Instead of Russian and Western drafts of a peace treaty, there will now only be one: Azerbaijan’s.
