Working towards institutionalizing regional stability and predictability in the South Caucasus is essential, though not sufficient, for a smooth transition for Azerbaijan’s post-oil economy and securing the stability of Aliyev’s regime.
The political and security situation in the Caucasus has changed, and it would be a mistake to not ask ourselves, in a dynamic moment like this, whether there are any new opportunities to build a more promising future in the wake of a tragic past.
The South Caucasus's geography—the borders the region shares with Russia— has long overshadowed its politics. But with Moscow occupied with its war against Ukraine, countries in the region are developing alternative foreign policy priorities and recalibrating relations with the West. As Armenia moves closer to the United States and Europe, the government in Georgia is lurching towards Moscow – despite opposition from its society. Meanwhile, Armenia and Azerbaijan are in talks for a historic chance for a peace treaty which could serve as the bedrock of a new regional order.
What is the significance of the South Caucasus for the West? How likely is a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan? What can the U.S. do to encourage regional cooperation and reconciliation? And how should the U.S. support democratic aspirations of Georgian society?
Join the Carnegie Endowment’s Europe program to discuss the U.S. role for a new order in the South Caucasus with Ambassador Yuri Kim, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasian Affairs;, Marie Yovanovitch, former Ambassador to Armenia and Ukraine and senior fellow in Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program; and Dan Baer, director of the Europe Program at Carnegie and former U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).
The deal would be a geopolitical game-changer.
The Kremlin’s options include attempting to organize a coup in Yerevan, or applying economic pressure. Neither is particularly likely.
Armenia and Azerbaijan may be nearing a bilateral peace agreement, but the threat of violence persists. A major sticking point is the Zangezur Corridor, where Baku and Moscow may pursue a deal to the detriment of Yerevan and the West.
Rapid geopolitical change is curtailing Russian power in the South Caucasus, boosting the influence of Middle Eastern countries and bookending the region’s “post-Soviet” history.
