Edition

Proliferation News 9/26/24

IN THIS ISSUE: Putin Issues Nuclear Warning to the West Over Strikes on Russia from Ukraine, China Test-fires an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile into the Pacific Ocean, IAEA Chief Sees Willingness from Iran to Re-engage on Nuclear File, Russia Planning to Target Nuclear Plants, Zelensky Says, North Korea More Likely to Conduct Nuke Test After US Election: ROK Spy Agency, The Race That Can’t Be Won


Published on September 26, 2024

Vladimir Soldatkin and Guy Faulconbridge | Reuters

President Vladimir Putin warned the West on Wednesday that Russia could use nuclear weapons if it was struck with conventional missiles, and that Moscow would consider any assault on it supported by a nuclear power to be a joint attack.The decision to change Russia's official nuclear doctrine is the Kremlin's answer to deliberations in the United States and Britain about whether or not to give Ukraine permission to fire conventional Western missiles into Russia…"It is proposed that aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear state, be considered as their joint attack on the Russian Federation," Putin said.

CHRISTOPHER BODEEN | Associated Press

China test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean on Wednesday, stirring security concerns in the region already tense over Beijing’s territorial claims and rivalry with the U.S. The ICBM carried a dummy warhead and fell into a designated area of the sea, the Defense Ministry said in a statement posted to social media…“When they haven’t done something for 44 years and then they do it, that’s significant,” Acton told The Associated Press. “It’s China’s way of telling us, ‘Like you, we’re not ashamed we have nuclear weapons and we’re going to behave like a great nuclear power.’”

John Irish | Reuters

 U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said on Tuesday he had sensed a greater willingness by Iranian officials to engage with the agency in a more meaningful way after talks in New York, and that he hoped to travel to Tehran in October…Grossi said he wanted to make real progress in restoring proper technical discussions with Iran quickly and was aiming to travel to Tehran in October to meet with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. "Of course now we have to give content and substance to this because we are not starting from zero. We have had relatively protracted process without replies to some of the questions we have," he said.

James Gregory | BBC

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has told the United Nations that Russia is planning deeper attacks on his country's nuclear power plants, warning of possible "nuclear disaster".He said he had received intelligence showing Moscow was using satellites provided by other countries to gather information about Ukraine's nuclear infrastructure. "Radiation does not respect state borders and many nations could feel a devastating effect,” he warned the UN General Assembly on Wednesday."...Any critical incident in the energy system could lead to a nuclear disaster - a day like that must never come," Zelensky said. "Moscow needs to understand this, and this depends in part on your determination to put pressure on the aggressor. "These are nuclear power plants. They must be safe."

Jeongmin Kim and Joon Ha Park | NK News

North Korea could finally conduct its long-expected seventh nuclear test after the U.S. presidential election in November, possibly using uranium produced by a recently revealed enrichment facility, according to South Korea’s intelligence agency. Ruling party lawmaker Lee Seongkweun of the intelligence committee said after a briefing with the National Intelligence Service (NIS) on Thursday that the agency believes a nuclear test “is more likely to occur after rather than before the U.S. election.” “This is because there are various other means of military provocation” that North Korea could opt for before the elections like a satellite or missile launch, rather than a nuclear test, Lee said. The assessment comes more than two years after the U.S. and South Korean authorities first predicted a North Korean nuclear test was “imminent,” citing signs of preparations at the country’s nuclear test site in the remote northeast.

Jessica T. Mathews | The New York Review

But for all its shortcomings, arms control brought down the total number of nuclear weapons held by the two countries from 60,000 to roughly 11,000 today. (The exact number is classified.) Under the most recent treaty, New START, signed in 2010, each side is limited to 1,550 deployed weapons, with the rest in storage. By any accounting, that 80 percent drop (95 percent counting just deployed weapons) is—or was—a notable achievement. Unfortunately, the past tense is correct, because since the US withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 2002—thereby legitimizing the unilateral renunciation of an agreement by one party if it no longer finds the restrictions to its taste—the other agreements have fallen one by one. In February 2026—about five hundred days from now—New START, the last remaining brick in the edifice so painstakingly built, will expire, leaving the United States and Russia with no restrictions on their nuclear arsenals for the first time in half a century.


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