Edition

Proliferation News 9/19/24

IN THIS ISSUE: In Brief: How Are Iranian Weapons Affecting the War in Ukraine?, A Closer Look at North Korea’s Enrichment Capabilities and What It Means, North Korea’s Kim is bolstering nuclear and conventional weapons after testing 2 types of missiles, Exclusive: US keeps missile system in Philippines as China tensions rise, South Korea’s Nuclear Latency Dilemma, What Would Iran Do With the Bomb?

Published on September 19, 2024

Nicole​​​​ Grajewski, Hamidreza Azizi, Nakissa Jahanbani, and Jim Lamson | War on the Rocks

Last week, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed that Iran has sent close range ballistic missiles to Russia, prompting expanded sanctions on the country. Blinken said that he expects the missiles to be used against Ukrainian forces within weeks. In light of this announcement, we asked four experts one question: how are Iranian weapons affecting the war in Ukraine?

Siegfried Hecker and Robert Carlin | 38 North

Last Friday, nearly 14 years after the North Koreans surprised our Stanford group by unveiling an ultra-modern centrifuge facility in the Yongbyon nuclear complex, the Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) reported a visit by Kim Jong Un to a centrifuge plant, including photos. During our November 2010 visit, we were not allowed to take photos. That makes direct comparisons between what we saw and what KCNA published difficult. But the questions are clear—what did Kim Jong Un want to show, why now, and what difference does it make?

Hyung-Jin Kim | AP News

North Korea said Thursday that leader Kim Jong Un supervised successful tests of two types of missiles — one designed to carry a “super-large conventional warhead” and the other likely for a nuclear warhead, as he ordered officials to bolster up his country’s military capabilities to repel United States-led threats. The tests appear to be the same as the multiple missile launches that neighboring countries said North Korea performed Wednesday, extending its run of weapons displays as confrontations with the U.S. and South Korea escalate.

Karen Lema and Poppy Mcpherson | Reuters

The United States has no immediate plans to withdraw a mid-range missile system deployed in the Philippines, despite Chinese demands, and is testing the feasibility of its use in a regional conflict, sources with knowledge of the matter said. The Typhon system, which can be equipped with cruise missiles capable of striking Chinese targets, was brought in for joint exercises earlier this year, both countries said at the time, but has remained there.

Lami Kim | War on the Rocks

Despite Washington’s efforts to alleviate South Korea’s security concerns, culminating in the April 2023 Washington Declaration, calls for nuclear armament in South Korea have not subsided. Recent polls show public support for nuclear armament consistently hovering above 70 percent. However, unlike the general public, the majority of South Korean elites do not favor outright nuclear armament.

Sina Azodi | Foreign Policy

A nuclear-armed Tehran would affect not just the region but also the great powers. There are no current indications that Iran is weaponizing its nuclear program, but the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has raised concerns that Tehran might finally cross the threshold. How might a nuclear-capable Iran behave? Experts offer differing perspectives on its potential regional and global impact.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.