Edition

Proliferation News 10/17/24

IN THIS ISSUE: US Policy Toward the Indo-Pacific through 2030: Continuity, Consequences, and Change, Russia Tells Israel to Not Even Consider Attacking Iranian Nuclear Facilities, TASS Says, Nuclear-War Risks Rise Again, Stoked by Global Conflicts, Amazon, Google Make Dueling Nuclear Investments to Power Data Centers with Clean Energy, Zelensky Says he told Trump that Either Ukraine Will Join NATO or Pursue Nuclear Weapons, Geolocating China’s Unprecedented Missile Launch: The Potential What, Where, How, and Why

Published on October 17, 2024

Toby Dalton and Anna Bartoux | 38 North

Whether 2025 marks the beginning of a first Harris administration or a second term for former President Trump, it is almost assured that the United States (US) government will pursue geopolitical competition with China through an “Indo-Pacific Strategy.” Although the tone has varied across the last three US administrations, a shared underlying characterization of interests and associated principles have driven a significant degree of continuity in American foreign policy toward the Indo-Pacific. Behind this continuity, there is a mainstream assumption that sustaining these policies—whether they are fully implemented or not—preserves the status quo in the region, despite the significant geopolitical and geoeconomic changes underway. 

Reuters 

Russia is warning Israel to not even consider striking Iranian nuclear facilities, state news agency TASS quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov as saying on Thursday. After Iran's missile attack on Israel on Oct. 1, there has been speculation that Israel could strike Iran's nuclear facilities, as it has long threatened to do. "We have repeatedly warned and continue to warn, to caution (Israel) against even hypothetically considering the possibility of a strike on (Iranian) nuclear facilities and nuclear infrastructure," Ryabkov was quoted by TASS as saying.

Laurence Norman | Wall Street Journal 

The Cold War’s end promised relief from nuclear nightmares. Long-adversarial governments agreed to eliminate warheads and collaborated to stop the spread of atomic weapons. That promise is now slipping away. Russian President Vladimir Putin last month touted new rules on using nuclear arms, offering Moscow’s latest signal of readiness to use atomic weapons in its defense. North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is expanding. Iran is close to developing usable nuclear weapons, prompting fears of a Middle East arms race.

ALEXA ST. JOHN and JENNIFER McDERMOTT | Associated Press

Amazon on Wednesday said that it was investing in small nuclear reactors, coming just two days after a similar announcement by Google, as both tech giants seek new sources of carbon-free electricity to meet surging demand from data centers and artificial intelligence. The plans come as the owner of the shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear power plant said last month it plans to restart the reactor so tech giant Microsoft can buy the power to supply its data centers.

Nate Ostiller | Kyiv Independent 

President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Oct. 17 that he told Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump in their meeting in September that Ukraine needs to be part of NATO, or it would pursue nuclear capabilities to protect itself. Zelensky was speaking from Brussels, where he presented his victory plan to EU leaders. "Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons, which will serve as protection, or it must be part of some kind of alliance. Apart from NATO, we do not know of such an effective alliance," Zelensky said that he had told Trump. "I believe Trump heard me and said that it was a fair argument," he added.

Eliana Johns | Federation of American Scientists 

On September 25, 2024, the Chinese Ministry of National Defence announced that the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) had test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the South Pacific. The announcement stated that this was a “routine arrangement in [their] annual training plan.” However, the ICBM was launched from Hainan Island, an unusual location for this kind of missile. In addition, the reentry vehicle impacted in the South Pacific, an estimated 11,700 km away, marking the first time China had targeted the Pacific in a test since 1980 when it tested its first ICBM (the DF-5) at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center.


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