Program
Middle East
Great Power Competition in the Middle East and North Africa

This ongoing stream of work explores a new era of competition between the United States, Russia, and China in the Middle East and North Africa. Militarily, economically, and diplomatically, these world powers, along with a number of traditional regional powers, seek to develop strong relations with and influence the policy of the Arab and non-Arab states of the region, and ultimately to turn this influence into a strategic advantage.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan give a joint press conference at the Kremlin in Moscow on April 8, 2019.
article
Türkiye and Russia: An Unequal Partnership

The multifaceted nature of Turkish-Russian relations is tied to Türkiye’s changing relations with the West and its strategic maneuvers for greater autonomy.

· October 24, 2024
hina's President Xi Jinping (L) shakes hands with United Arab Emirates' President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan ahead of the opening ceremony of the 10th Ministerial Meeting of China-Arab States Cooperation Forum at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing on May 30, 2024.
article
China and Russia in the Gulf: A Cacophony of Influence and Interest

China and Russia face different trajectories in the Gulf. These trajectories will be shaped by prevailing strategic interests and influence, which are evolving and can shift abruptly.

  • Robert Mogielnicki
· October 17, 2024
Putin and Khamenei
article
Autocrats United: How Russia and Iran Defy the U.S.-Led Global Order

A common adversary has brought these natural rivals together.

· October 10, 2024
Morocco's Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita (R) shares a laugh with Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during the 6th session of the Arab-Russian cooperation Forum on December 20,2023 in Marrakesh.
article
A Mixed Balance Sheet: Russia’s Uneven Influence in the Maghreb

Russia’s outreach to the region has successfully exploited regimes’ frustrations with the West. Yet it has encountered difficulties in navigating the complex interrelations and rivalries.

· October 3, 2024
Egypt's Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty (L) and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hold a press conference following their talks in Moscow, on September 16, 2024.
article
Soviet and Russian Policies Toward Egypt: Two Snapshots

By aligning with Russia occasionally, Egypt not only mitigates the impact of fluctuating U.S. support but also extracts concessions and benefits from both the United States and Russia.

· September 26, 2024
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (R) and his Lebanese counterpart Abdallah Bou Habib shake hands during a joint press conference following their talks in Moscow on November 22, 2021.
article
Russia’s Balancing Act in the Levant

Russia’s military intervention in Syria reflected a more assertive foreign policy. However, its ability to expand its influence to Lebanon and beyond has been restricted.

· September 19, 2024
In The Media
in the media
The Right Way for America to Counter Russia in Africa

A string of coups across Africa since 2020 has allowed Moscow to strengthen its position on the continent, even as it funnels vast military and economic resources into the war in Ukraine. 

· July 9, 2024
Foreign Affairs
commentary
Governing Gaza After the War: The International Perspectives

Experts analyze critical issues on what happens after the fighting abates, from global points of view.

· February 26, 2024
In The Media
in the media
The Multialigned Middle East

The deficiencies of Washington’s bloc-based, security-centric approach in the Middle East have long been apparent. With the rise of China and the region’s growing search for multiple partners, the need to revise this strategy has become urgent.

· July 17, 2023
Foreign Affairs
research
Disruptions and Dynamism in the Arab World

Since 2011, the Arab world has undergone massive upheavals—geopolitical shifts, climate shocks, mounting economic pressures, and authoritarian restructuring, to name a few. Dynamic responses from governments and citizens are laying the shape of the next decade.

· May 3, 2023
commentary
The Potential Inroads and Pitfalls of China’s Foray Into Middle East Diplomacy

Beijing’s success will depend on the policies of regional actors—particularly Iran.

· March 20, 2023
testimony
The Impact of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine in the Middle East and North Africa

More specifically, Washington should not let this new frame of "great power rivalry," which Middle East autocracies have heartily welcomed and exploited, distract it from scrutinizing the behavior of these regimes at home and from helping the region's citizens and societies address the socio-economic and political problems they face now and in the coming decades.

· May 19, 2022
House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on the Mid East, North Africa and Counterterrorism