Traditional powers are worried about a second Trump administration, but much of the world has had the opposite reaction.

And why it would be a mistake to judge emerging powers by the strength of their ties to China or Russia.

Collectively, a group of emerging powers in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East are growing in their geopolitical weight and diplomatic ambition. How closely do they align with the United States when it comes to Russia and China? What drives their decisions on the world stage? How can the United States integrate them into its foreign policy strategy?

While Mexico has taken an independent foreign policy, it firmly sees itself as part of North America. The U.S. movement to de-risk from China may be pivotal to realizing that vision.

South Africa wants a more multipolar world order where developing countries have more influence. It therefore views counterweights to U.S. power, including China and Russia, as friends rather than enemies.

Brazil is moving up the ranks of the global system, with the objective of taking on a greater role in geopolitical agenda-setting. It sees China’s rise as helpful for this objective.

Nigeria’s large economy and burgeoning soft power make it a critical emerging power in Africa. But domestic problems demand that Nigeria steer a careful middle path between the United States and its adversaries.

In recent years, Buenos Aires has sought stronger ties with China and membership in the BRICS. But with the recent election of far-right president Javier Milei, Argentina’s approach to the world may change.

As Indonesia joins the ranks of Asia’s rising powers, it will avoid alignment with either the United States or China.

India is increasingly aligned with the United States on China, but it is not squarely in Washington’s camp. It goes its own way when it comes to Russia.