Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center Research

Recent Articles & Papers
article
Operation Aspides, or the Peril of Low Expectations in Yemen

For the foreseeable future, maritime trade through the Red Sea will remain a hostage to Ansar Allah and Iran. They will likely use this to secure concessions elsewhere.

paper
Do No Harm: Toward an Environmental Audit of Military-Managed Civilian Projects in Egypt

In order for Egypt to respond effectively to the alarming environmental threats it faces, it must bring the large number of military-managed projects and production in the civilian domain under a single, integrated national framework for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning, monitoring, and accountability.

article
Kais Saied’s Grip on Tunisia Comes at a High Cost

Tunisia’s extensive social expenditure has proven to be both unfair and inefficient, further worsening the country’s financial problems. However, this substantial spending has allowed Saied’s regime to buy time and keep the country afloat until the elections. Now that the elections are over, persisting with this approach risks fueling a vicious cycle that could lead to social instability.

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article
Operation Aspides, or the Peril of Low Expectations in Yemen

For the foreseeable future, maritime trade through the Red Sea will remain a hostage to Ansar Allah and Iran. They will likely use this to secure concessions elsewhere.

· November 19, 2024
paper
Do No Harm: Toward an Environmental Audit of Military-Managed Civilian Projects in Egypt

In order for Egypt to respond effectively to the alarming environmental threats it faces, it must bring the large number of military-managed projects and production in the civilian domain under a single, integrated national framework for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning, monitoring, and accountability.

· November 12, 2024
article
A Path Out of Tunisia’s Economic Crisis

President Kais Saied has won a second term in office, but his country is facing a host of problems that necessitate urgent reforms, above all preventing the possibility of a financial meltdown. 

· October 31, 2024
article
Kais Saied’s Grip on Tunisia Comes at a High Cost

Tunisia’s extensive social expenditure has proven to be both unfair and inefficient, further worsening the country’s financial problems. However, this substantial spending has allowed Saied’s regime to buy time and keep the country afloat until the elections. Now that the elections are over, persisting with this approach risks fueling a vicious cycle that could lead to social instability.

· October 31, 2024
article
Tension and Collusion: State-Business Relations in Saied’s Tunisia

Unless Tunisia undertakes much deeper structural change, Saied’s modus vivendi with big business will lead to increasing economic gridlock.

· October 28, 2024
article
Independence Usurped: Tunisia’s Central Bank Under Kais Saied’s Rule

To halt its slide toward bankruptcy, Tunisia needs to restore the independence of its central bank and send a very strong signal of reforms to international investors and financial institutions.

  • Bassem Snaije
· October 28, 2024
paper
Tunisia’s Economy in the Eye of the Storm

Tunisia’s vulnerability to financial crisis is clear from its economic performance in 2023. How can the country pull itself back from the edge?

· October 9, 2024
article
Morocco’s Long Road Toward Economic Transformation

The kingdom’s trajectory in the last quarter century has been characterized by an ambitious modernization program, greater sustainability, and entry into global value chains, despite socioeconomic challenges.

  • Alexandre Kateb
· September 20, 2024
paper
Borders Without a Nation: Syria, Outside Powers, and Open-Ended Instability

In Syria’s border regions, changes in demographics, economics, and security mean that an inter-Syrian peace process will require consensus among main regional powers that Syria must remain united, that no one side can be victorious, and that perennial instability threatens the region.

· September 10, 2024
research
The Military and Private Business Actors in the Global South: The Politics of Market Access

The interaction of national armed forces and private business sectors offers a useful lens for viewing the politics of numerous countries of the so-called Global South. A rising trend of military political activism—often accompanied by military commercial activity—underlines the importance of drivers and outcomes in these relationships.

· August 19, 2024