What Would a Proactive Western Strategy on Belarus Look Like?

For decades, the West has been unable to build an effective strategy vis-à-vis Belarus due to the country’s limited geopolitical importance, its growing dependence on Moscow, and the absence of leverage over Minsk’s strategic decision-making. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which turned Belarus into a co-aggressor, further stymied the West’s interest in the country, which is increasingly seen merely as the Kremlin’s satellite.

But there is still an opportunity for the West to adopt a new proactive strategy toward Belarus. What benefits would that bring? What policies could be implemented and what effects could they have on the Belarusian economy and society? How can sanctions be used to bolster the autonomy of the Belarusian economy and reduce Russia’s levers of influence?

To investigate the complex challenges and opportunities that Belarus presents to Western countries, we held an online discussion with Artyom Shraibman, a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and the author of the paper “Getting Off the Back Foot: Guiding Principles for a Proactive Western Strategy on Belarus,” and Lev Lvovskiy, academic director of the Belarusian economic research center, BEROC. Moderator: Alesia Rudnik, director of the Center for New Ideas.