“After Us, the Deluge”: Socioeconomic Risks to Russian Policy

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As Moscow finally wakes up to the reality of climate change and the global energy transition, the prevailing attitude among the ruling class appears to be that there is enough oil and gas to keep the state coffers full, buy voters’ loyalty, and control civil society and the media for as long as the country’s current leaders are in power. What comes after that does not concern them—to quote Madame de Pompadour: “After us, the deluge.”

But the Russian political system faces many risks and challenges—political, social, economic, and even psychological—that could bring the deluge earlier than expected. In their latest research paper, “The Coming Deluge: Russia’s Looming Lost Decade of Unpaid Bills and Economic Stagnation,” Andrei Kolesnikov and Denis Volkov have compiled a catalog of the medium-and long-term economic challenges that Russia faces.

• What are the key economic challenges for the Russian political system?
• When will these risks materialize?
• How likely are the Russian authorities to be able to overcome these challenges and crises within the framework of the current political regime?

A panel of experts will address these questions and many more.

This is a joint event organized by Carnegie Moscow Center and the Embassy of Finland in Russia, with opening remarks from Deputy Head of Mission Marja Koskela.