The New Middle East Peace Process – Growing Regional Apathy?

IMGXYZ2715IMGZYXAccording to several recent polls, there is growing apathy in the Arab world for the peace process and the plight of the Palestinian people. In an event hosted by Carnegie Europe, Carnegie's Nathan Brown, Amr Hamzawy, and Taghreed El-Khodary discussed changing regional attitudes toward the Middle East peace process. The discussion was moderated by Carnegie Europe’s Lizza Bomassi.

Regional Perspectives

In addressing the regional dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, Hamzawy focused on three key dimensions:

• Public Opinion: Arab populations have long had an interest in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and that interest persists. However, there has been increasing disenchantment with the prospects of a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians, and there is growing skepticism that talks will lead to any positive results from a Palestinian and Arab perspective. Moreover, Arab public opinion is split into two competing narratives on the conflict: on the one hand, a discourse centered on the peace process that is being pursued by moderate Arab governments, and on the other, the rhetoric of resistance, which is being encouraged by radicals after the Lebanon and Gaza wars.
   
• Major Arab Actors: Major Arab powers are not playing a central role in the peace talks. Despite their promotion of peacemaking as a strategy, countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan have been unable to shape the agenda of negotiations. The negotiations are being led by the United States, and are taking place bilaterally between the Palestinians and the Israelis, so Arab actors are being marginalized.   The Arab League has also had a very limited role, as divisions within the organization itself have prevented it from providing political and diplomatic support to the Palestinian Authority. The Arab League has also been relatively passive in promoting the regional aspect of the peace talks through the Arab Peace initiative.
   
• Lack of Vision: No coherent Arab or regional vision for the peace process exists. Regionally, perceptions of the process and its future range from those of Iran—whose views are based on resistance and confrontation—to those of Turkey, which calls for diplomatic engagement. An Arab vision on the peace process should come from Egypt, Hamzawy asserted. However, Egypt is currently focused on its own domestic politics, as its parliamentary and presidential elections approach.

The Palestinian Political System

• Widespread Disillusionment: There is growing disillusionment among Palestinians, verging on outright despair, about the prospects of the peace process, Brown commented. Coupled with the absence of any viable alternatives and a Palestinian political system that is very badly broken, this creates a desperate situation on the ground.
   
• U.S. Role: The United States is trying to take advantage of the internal divisions between the Palestinians to reinforce the Fatah leadership in the West Bank. The United States, Brown continued, wants to demonstrate that a combination of diplomatic and economic progress, along with an agenda to build and strengthen Palestinian institutions, can create a Palestinian leadership in the West Bank capable of speaking authoritatively for all Palestinian people and participating in peace negotiations. However, Brown continued, this policy has little chance of success for several reasons: 
  
  
  • Diplomatic Problems: The peace negotiations are disconnected from the realities on the ground. One of the most serious problems facing the process is that the Palestinians have no legitimate mechanism for ensuring the implementation of a peace accord. Therefore, even if Fatah were able to reach an agreement with the Israelis, it would have no way of ensuring that Hamas accepted the deal.
     
  • Economic Problems: Despite an extremely generous recovery assistance program, sustainable economic development remains elusive. A mild economic recovery, coupled with massive injections of foreign capital and the loosening of Israeli security restrictions on the West Bank, has led to a moderate amount of growth. However, this success is ultimately hostage to the political situation, and the moment that donors or the Israelis lose faith, growth will vanish.
     
• Governance: During the 1990s, genuine institutional development took place within the Palestinian Authority, albeit dysfunctional, authoritarian in nature, and prone to corruption, Brown said. However, the split between Hamas and Fatah and the separation of Gaza from the West Bank brought this development to an end. It is now impossible for the Palestinians to adopt and implement uniform legislation or develop any of the other institutions of a unified state. Moreover, the split has precipitated a crisis in Palestinian civil society. With the political process frozen, Palestinian political parties have lost their relevance and NGOs find themselves caught between the two rival factions.  

Palestinian National Reconciliation 

• A Challenging Stage: The Palestinians are currently facing one of the most challenging situations in their history, El-Khodary argued. There is a major crisis of trust between Fatah and Hamas. Both parties support the two-state solution, with a Palestinian state based on 1967 borders and East Jerusalem as its capital. However, they disagree on the means of achieving this. Fatah believes in negotiations, while Hamas favors resistance.
   
• Hamas: The war in Gaza, with its high civilian casualties, has hurt Hamas’s popularity, El-Khodary explained. Hamas is therefore recalibrating its strategy, moving away from = resistance and toward seeking international legitimacy. At the same time, Hamas is keen to demonstrate that it can obstruct any peace deal that excludes it.
   
• Obstacles to Reconciliation: Despite the major differences that separate them, Fatah and Hamas are capable of reaching a compromise, El-Khodary argued. They have shown their willingness to do so with the Cairo reconciliation talks. The real obstacle to Palestinian reconciliation, she continued, is coming from the international community. The United States in particular is not interested in seeing reconciliation between the Palestinian factions. Instead it is attempting to use the peace process to bolster Fatah’s legitimacy and popularity at the expense of Hamas, which it considers a terrorist organization.
   
• The Necessity of Reconciliation: Reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah is urgently needed and is largely supported by local residents. The only possible way to implement a peace agreement, El-Khodary concluded, is for a unified Palestinian entity to do so.