A Cosmic History of Globalization

In order to put global governance in perspective, Robert Wright attempts to explain the logic of human history, arguing that globalization was "in the cards" for humanity. Using game theory as a lens through which to examine history, Wright explains that human civilizations have evolved through the playing of nonzero sum games. Through history, as humans have engaged in increasingly complex activities, they have also been required to cooperate with each other in increasingly complex ways. Consequently, social complexity and nonzero sum games have grown together in a positive feedback loop. Wright argues that globalization is thus comprised of many nonzero sum games played by individuals and groups around the world.

Rooting human history in nonzero sum game theory has an intellectual antecedent in cultural evolution. Cultural evolution is an anthropological school of thought from the nineteenth century that argued that human cultures have a natural tendency to evolve into systems of increasing complexity. Scholars of cultural evolutionism categorized human societies into savages (hunter-gatherer societies), barbarians (chiefdoms), and civilizations (states). Admittedly, human societies have not all evolved at the same speed. In Guns, Germs, and Steel, Jared Diamond argues that environmental factors determine different societies' pace and style of development. Wright also identifies the size and density of human population as positively correlated with rates of technical and social change. However, despite evidence of different rates of societal development, cultural evolutionists were right that humans devise increasingly complex systems of interaction as their societies evolve. For example, Wright points to the relatively undeveloped society of the Shoshone American Indians and how their use of technology encouraged cooperation and social complexity. The Shoshone's use of large nets to hunt rabbits necessitated the division of labor, a social innovation spurred by a nonzero sum situation.

In the past, zero sum dynamics between societies has facilitated nonzero sum games within a society, since having a common enemy breeds internal cooperation. If present day trends of global economic interdependence continue, Wright hopes that war between states will soon be a thing of the past. While the need to maintain the threat of force is crucial, Wright argues that the actual use of force may become increasingly antiquated in an interdependent world. For instance, we now increasingly think that war is something only poor countries do--a radical departure from the past when powerful nations, like France and Germany, always threatened to fight with each other over wealth. Wright argues that conflicts like those that occurred in the Balkans and Rwanda happen because these types of places are under-globalized.

This playing of nonzero sum games by human societies has important implications for global governance. The increasing interdependence of human societies throughout the world will require great amounts of cooperation to solve common problems. For example, global warming is an extremely difficult and complex problem that will require a great nonzero sum game to be played. To come up with a viable international agreement on combating global warming, states will be required to surrender parts of their national sovereignty and hold each other accountable to their commitments. Similarly, the global AIDS epidemic has become an international security threat in a highly globalized world. Solving it will require action on part of Western aid donors, governments of AIDS pandemic countries, citizens, pharmaceutical companies, and others. In addition, the amount of havoc terrorists can wage will grow as new technologies are developed. Wright argues that combating this terrorism requires not only fighting the means of terror, but also addressing the grievances-such as poverty and inequality-that breed terrorism.

The direction of human history indicates that we increasingly recognize each other's humanity and fundamental human rights. To deal with our common problems, more nonzero sum games will have to be played among states and societies. The functioning of highly institutionalized international organizations like the World Trade Organization and the European Union is a positive signal of the large potential of global cooperation. As transnational problems increase in scope and complexity, states will be required to devise means of government that facilitate global governance, allow policy makers to plan their policies with a long-term time horizon, and expand the definition of national self-interest.

Summary prepared by Radha Kuppalli, Junior Fellow.