Kenya Is at an Inflection Point. It Needs a New Path to Progress.

Since the turn of the century, Kenya has experienced significant changes in its social and economic landscape, with uneven impacts across all layers of society. The country, like many of its neighbors, has experienced a demographic shift, with an increasing number of educated, tech-savvy, and connected young people. But many of this cohort—known as Generation Z, or Gen Z, made up of those born between 1997 and 2012—don’t see the country’s transformation helping them. Despite sustained economic growth, youth unemployment has remained high. Increased internet access has widened democratic spaces, and digital activism has flourished, but a relentless corruption culture has prevailed.

These factors help explain the political unrest that erupted across the country on June 18. Dubbed the Gen Z demonstrations, the protests were triggered by a proposed finance bill that would have increased Kenyans’ tax burden. But long after the bill’s withdrawal, the demand for change persists. The protests led Kenya to an inflection point, and although the protests’ intensity has diminished, the government clearly needs to adopt a new strategy with a well-defined direction.

The Youth: A Catalyst

Analysts have been writing about the Kenyan demographic wave’s potential for several years. The United Nations projects that by 2050, more than a quarter of the global population will be African, and 70 percent of the population of “sub-Saharan Africa” will be under thirty. In Kenya, those under thirty-five constitute 80 percent of the population, and of the 12 percent of the population who is unemployed, more than two-thirds belong to this youth demographic.

A 2023 New York Times article highlighted the “peril and potential” of Africa’s young people, noting that building pressure among “a restless youth” could erupt at any moment—a prediction now validated by Kenya’s protests. But the Gen Z protests look different than their predecessors. These digital natives have relied heavily on digital activism interspersed with a culture of fashion and music. In addition, the protests were dispersed across Kenya’s major cities and towns, “hydra-headed,” leaderless, and tribeless—a marked shift from the usual configuration of Kenyan politics and an unprecedented political movement.

Examples of youth uprisings across the continent are not new: Kenya’s unrest mirrors Nigeria’s 2020 youth protests, when Nigeria’s youth “united against tribe, religion, and ethnicity to demand change.” Though Nigeria’s protests had different triggers, technology played a key role in mobilization and spreading awareness of the issues. Other governments, both in Africa and around the world, may find themselves facing similar unrest if they fail to resolve the fundamental issues of their youth’s unmet potential.

Kenya’s 2024 Finance Bill: The Trigger

The proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back was Kenya’s now defunct 2024 Finance Bill. The proposed legislation sought to raise an additional $2.5 billion in government revenue through increased taxes on essential products such as cooking oil and feminine hygiene products. Other provisions included an increase of value-added tax to 16 percent and tax hikes on mobile money. It later emerged that the proposed legislation was in part driven by the International Monetary Fund’s demands in exchange for Kenya receiving a financing program.

In addition, the bill came at a time of decreased trust among many Kenyans in the government’s ability to translate taxes into public services. Many viewed the potential additional revenue as an avenue for increased corruption by the political elite. These sentiments are not without justification: President William Ruto’s government, like other previous administrations, has been plagued by corruption scandals. The most recent of these scandals was a scheme in which the government-subsidized fertilizer that was distributed to Kenyan farmers was discovered to be fake.

Many Kenyans felt the finance bill was out of touch with their economic realities, imposing an additional, unaffordable cost burden. It sparked widespread outrage and provoked the #RejectFinanceBill online movement. But the response from officials was defiant political rhetoric in support of the bill, which ignited the protests. Young people moved from online platforms to the streets and became the voice of opposition for the bill. In masses, they turned up across the country, adorned mostly in black, waving placards and the Kenyan flag, chanting, singing, and demanding to be heard. Their magnitude was astounding, ushering an instantaneous shift in Kenyan politics.

Though protests started peacefully, they ended tragically for some, due to clashes with the Kenya police. As of August 8, fifty-five Kenyans had lost their lives in the protests, and at least thirty-two had been subject to abductions and arbitrary arrests.

The finance bill was withdrawn after weeks of protest, but the Gen Z movement was not calmed. The bill ignited much deeper grievances over governance and leadership, and the movement has morphed to one demanding leadership change.

Technology: The Accelerant

Another factor that has played a key role in this moment is internet connectivity and social media. Kenya’s internet connectivity rate is among the highest in the region, with 40 percent of the population having an internet connection—marked by a high mobile data subscription. The country has been deemed the Silicon Savannah due to its technological innovations, such as the mobile money platform MPESA, and its position as an African technology leader. Thanks to this widespread connectivity, a large part of Kenya’s youth uses popular social media sites to communicate and engage on different issues. 

It was no surprise that the protests were driven by social media, including X (formerly Twitter), Instagram, and TikTok. Kenyans’ use of global social media apps has been rapidly expanding over the past decade, especially among younger people. TikTok in particular has a massive youth following in the country and was regarded as the epicenter for the Gen Z #RejectFinanceBill movement.

Other technologies also rose to prominence during the protests. Zello, a push-to-talk walkie-talkie app, saw more than 40,000 downloads in Kenya in a period of one week. The app served as a real-time communication channel for coordinating movement. An AI-driven finance bill chat tool allowed users to ask questions and get information about the proposed bill, marking a significant shift in how Kenyans get their policy information. In addition, Gen Z content producers used social media to show how politicians were living in opulence and flaunting their wealth, even as majority of Kenyans were struggling with basic needs. Video snippets of the political elite, marked with the hashtag #RutoMustGo, continue to fuel the demand for change, long after the finance bill was dropped.

Using social media as a civic engagement tool is not new for Kenya—but it’s also a double-edged sword. Platforms like X have been used by citizens to air political grievances as well as by the government for its propaganda. Kenyans on Twitter, or KOT, is a known force in the country and has been accused of cyberbullying. During the protests, popular bloggers and social media influencers were targeted by government security agents for their online activity, with cases of abductions and harrowing tales.

However, social media as a tool for digital activism in Kenya has largely remained accessible. This contrasts with countries such as Nigeria or Uganda, where the internet or access to social media has been slowed or shut down during unrest. Though many Kenyans reported that the internet was throttled during the finance bill demonstrations, Safaricom, Kenya’s major mobile carrier, later issued a statement claiming that the loss of service was caused by severed underwater cables.

The Crossroads

More than two months after the first demonstrations began, the reverberations continue, but with dissipated action. Progress has inched forward, but a definitive path or new strategy has not yet emerged.

Ruto’s efforts to calm the situation have included a raft of measures such as hosting an online event where he apologized for the police violence and announced the resignation of the country’s police boss. He also restricted the number of advisers in government ministries, banned all state and public officers from participating in fundraisers, reduced the number of state institutions, and fired most of his cabinet. The latter should have been seen as a step in the right direction but was mired in distrust and skepticism, which was partially validated when he reappointed some of the sacked ministers and appointed others from the opposition.

Some argue that the appointment of opposition is a strategy from an outdated playbook. Ruto’s so-called broad-based cabinet has received a mixed reaction: it’s been applauded by some, but it has not received widespread support from demonstrators, who perceive it as recycling the old guard and failing to respond to demands for accountability. Additionally, Ruto called for national dialogue, but his pleas have been rejected by the Gen Z protesters and other leaders, as they do not think the gesture is sincere. Kenya’s Gen Z protesters have largely retreated from the streets, but their digital activism continues, with an undeterred call for change.

Kenya’s inflection has brought to light several issues that require resolution, including a reduced currency of trust. The government is plagued by a legitimacy conundrum: Ruto’s election was free and fair, but he and his administration have suffered a significant loss of trust. The legislative branch also lost its favor. The lawmakers who supported the bill were the majority, and their political patronage has been exposed. They will need to reestablish themselves as a true people’s parliament, especially after the exposure of some parliament members’ overt demonstration of unexplainable wealth. Rooting out corruption must be a key priority.

In addition to restoring trust, Ruto also must deal with the policy implications of the withdrawn finance bill, the annual legislation that determines government fiscal stipulations for the year. The new cabinet secretary now has the task of developing a new fiscal plan while being mindful of the issues that sparked the demonstrations—as well as dealing with the additional complication of an annulled 2023 finance act. The government needs to take action to finance Kenya’s budgetary needs and repay its loans while also developing a longer-term plan that sets it on a path of economic freedom and growth—one that should lean on the strengths of the educated, tech-savvy youth that brought Kenya to this inflection point.

Kenya has already identified technology as a tool for socioeconomic growth. Now, its leaders must urgently translate this strategy into action. Young people urgently need jobs and economic opportunities. Ruto’s digital superhighway agenda holds potential for delivering on 1 million jobs in five years through the gig economy. But this is not enough, as 1 million young Kenyans are estimated to enter the job market annually. New thinking is needed; near-term and long-term solutions are needed to generate new economic opportunities for Kenya’s young talent.

In addition, the country has rolled out innovation programs, such as the proposed Kenyan Startup Fund, that aim to identify and nurture creative talent. This fund, when implemented, can resolve a key challenge in the innovative ecosystem—securing seed funding—that is a major hindrance for the growth and expansion of startups. For this initiative to succeed, there must be a corruption-free environment. Previous, similar initiatives have been plagued by mismanagement, leading to minimal advancements, so addressing corruption will be critical for the success of any new strategy.

An emphasis should also be placed on digital manufacturing initiatives. The U.S.-Kenya digital agreement committed Washington’s support for semiconductor manufacturing in Kenya, the first such operation in Africa. This foreign policy initiative presents Kenya with a golden opportunity to position itself as a key player in a cutting-edge sector within the region. The global semiconductor industry is projected to become a trillion-dollar business by 2030, and with the demand for chips expected to increase, Kenya can secure both regional leadership and economic prosperity.

Finally, Kenya’s leaders must reshape their communication strategy for a digital-native generation. New political and policy avenues of engagement that extend to the spaces where the majority youth spend their time are essential for ensuring sustained dialogue. Presidential engagement on platforms such as X should not be limited to crisis management but should continue dialogue. AI as a tool for policy engagement should also be explored further.

Kenya’s many lessons should guide other African countries that face tensions similar to those that contributed to Kenya’s inflection point. Kenya’s youth are no longer a projected demographic wave that requires predictive analysis. Rather, they are a current political force with the right and responsibility to steer the country in the direction they want it to go. Kenya and other African countries must find pathways to engage the unmet potential of the youth and transform the demographic shift into an economic asset. Failure to reshape government playbooks will be detrimental to African leaders—not just Ruto. The Gen Z protests should not be treated as a fleeting cloud, else the government may soon find that the demonstrations were not an isolated event.